Related papers: How to predict and avert economic crisis
Two distinct trends can prove the existence of technological unemployment in the US. First, there are more open jobs than the number of unemployed persons looking for a job, and second, the shift of the Beveridge curve. There have been many…
We present a methodology for representing probabilistic relationships in a general-equilibrium economic model. Specifically, we define a precise mapping from a Bayesian network with binary nodes to a market price system where consumers and…
Socio-economic data mining has a great potential in terms of gaining a better understanding of problems that our economy and society are facing, such as financial instability, shortages of resources, or conflicts. Without large-scale data…
I characterize optimal government policy in a sticky-price economy with different types of consumers and endogenous financial constraints in the banking and entrepreneurial sectors. The competitive equilibrium allocation is constrained…
The correctness of Harrods model in the differential form is studied. The inadequacy of exponential growth of economy is shown; an alternative result is obtained. By example of Phillips model, an approach to correction of macroeconomic…
General Equilibrium Theory is the benchmark of economics, especially its results concerning the efficient allocation of resources, known as the First and Second Welfare Theorems. Yet, General Equilibrium Theory is beyond the scope of most…
This paper examines strategic trading under incomplete information, where firms lack full knowledge of key aspects of their competitors' trading strategies such as target sizes and market impact models. We extend previous work on…
Collective behaviours taking place in financial markets reveal strongly correlated states especially during a crisis period. A natural hypothesis is that trend reversals are also driven by mutual influences between the different stock…
Competitive equilibrium (CE) is a fundamental concept in market economics. Its efficiency and fairness properties make it particularly appealing as a rule for fair allocation of resources among agents with possibly different entitlements.…
The disbalance of Supply and Demand is typically considered as the driving force of the markets. However, the measurement or estimation of Supply and Demand at price different from the execution price is not possible even after the…
All economies require physical resource consumption to grow and maintain their structure. The modern economy is additionally characterized by private debt. The Human and Resources with MONEY (HARMONEY) economic growth model links these…
Although classical economic theory is based on the concept of stable equilibrium, real economic systems appear to be always out of equilibrium. Indeed, they share many of the dynamical features of other complex systems, e.g., ecological…
We explore the nonlinear dynamics of a macroeconomic model with resource constraints. The dynamics is derived from a production function that considers capital and a generalized form of energy as inputs. Energy, the new variable, is…
We study the disequilibrium dynamics of a stylised model of production networks in which firms use perishable and non-substitutable intermediate inputs, so that adverse idiosyncratic productivity shocks can trigger downstream shortages and…
The correctness of Harrods model in the differential form is studied. The inadequacy of exponential growth of economy is shown; an alternative result is obtained. By example of Phillips model, an approach to correction of macroeconomic…
Platform giants in China have operated with persistently compressed margins in highly concentrated markets for much of the past decade, despite market shares exceeding 60\% in core segments. Standard theory predicts otherwise: either the…
We consider in a market model the cooperative emergence of value due to a positive feedback between perception of needs and demand. Here we consider also a negative feedback from production of the traded products, and find that this…
Competitive balance in a football league is extremely important from the perspective of economic growth of the industry. Many researchers have earlier proposed different measures of competitive balance, which are primarily adapted from the…
This paper characterizes the probability of a market failure defined as the default of two or more globally systemically important banks (G-SIBs) in a small interval of time. The default probabilities of the G-SIBs are correlated through…
This paper develops a sufficient-statistic formula for the unemployment gap -- the difference between the actual unemployment rate and the efficient unemployment rate. While lowering unemployment puts more people into work, it forces firms…