Related papers: Universality of rain event size distributions
We investigate the predictability of extreme events in time series. The focus of this work is to understand under which circumstances large events are better predictable than smaller events. Therefore we use a simple prediction algorithm…
In probability theory, there is a tendency to treat one random variable with a given distribution as being just as good as any other. By and large this is fine because probability is (mostly) concerned with distributional properties of…
A long noted difficulty when assessing the reliability (or calibration) of forecasting systems is that reliability, in general, is a hypothesis not about a finite dimensional parameter but about an entire functional relationship. A…
Universality in the behavior of complex systems often reveals itself in the form of scale-invariant distributions that are essentially independent of the details of the microscopic dynamics. A representative paradigm of complex behavior in…
Robust sensing and perception in adverse weather conditions remain one of the biggest challenges for realizing reliable autonomous vehicle mobility services. Prior work has established that rainfall rate is a useful measure for the…
We present a geometrical model of the distribution of luminous matter in the universe, derived from a very simple reaction-diffusion model of turbulent phenomena. The apparent dimension of luminous matter, $D(l)$, depends linearly on the…
In this work, an analysis of multifractal parameters of daily precipitation series over the Iberian Peninsula was performed in two 30-year periods to explore whether these properties follow any pattern. Fluctuations of precipitation series…
A review of the statistical properties of earthquakes is provided, centered mainly in the work of the author (apologies for that). We explain the scaling law for the recurrence-time distributions, its universal character for stationary…
Event-by-event observables are compared with conventional inclusive measurements. We find that moments of event-by-event fluctuations are closely related to inclusive correlation functions. Implications for upcomming heavy ion experiments…
Universal scaling laws of fluctuations (the $\Delta$-scaling laws) can be derived for equilibrium and off-equilibrium systems when combined with the finite-size scaling analysis. In any system in which the second-order critical behavior can…
Clouds cast shadows on the surface and locally enhance solar irradiance by absorbing and scattering sunlight, resulting in fast and large solar irradiance fluctuations on the surface. Typical spatiotemporal scales and driving mechanisms of…
This article brings in two new discrete distributions: multidimensional Binomial distribution and multidimensional Poisson distribution. Those distributions were created in eventology as more correct generalizations of Binomial and Poisson…
Dynamical systems in nature exhibit self-similar fractal space-time fluctuations on all scales indicating long-range correlations and therefore the statistical normal distribution with implicit assumption of independence, fixed mean and…
Universal properties of turbulence have been associated traditionally with very high Reynolds numbers, but recent work has shown that the onset of the power-laws in derivative statistics occurs at modest microscale Reynolds numbers of the…
The power law is ubiquitous in natural and social phenomena, and is considered as a universal relationship between the frequency and its rank for diverse social systems. However, a general model is still lacking to interpret why these…
The impacts of a tropical cyclone after landfall depend not only on storm intensity but also on the size and structure of the wind field. Hence, a simple predictive model for the wind field after landfall has significant potential value.…
The probability distributions of the masses of the clusters spanning from top to bottom of a percolating lattice at the percolation threshold are obtained in all dimensions from two to five. The first two cumulants and the exponents for the…
We discuss several models in order to shed light on the origin of power-law distributions and power-law correlations in financial time series. From an empirical point of view, the exponents describing the tails of the price increments…
As observers of the universe we are physical systems within it. If the universe is very large in space and/or time, the probability becomes significant that the data on which we base predictions is replicated at other locations in…
We argue that complex systems must possess long range correlations and illustrate this idea on the example of the mean field spin glass model. Defined on the complete graph, this model has no genuine concept of distance, but the long range…