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We consider a stochastic process which is (a) described by a continuous-time Markov chain on only short time-scales and (b) constrained to conserve a number of hidden quantities on long time-scales. We assume that the transition matrix of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-10-27 Vitaly Vanchurin

In multi-period stochastic optimization problems, the future optimal decision is a random variable whose distribution depends on the parameters of the optimization problem. We analyze how the expected value of this random variable changes…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-01-28 Bar Light

We consider a class of discrete time Markov chains with state space [0,1] and the following dynamics. At each time step, first the direction of the next transition is chosen at random with probability depending on the current location. Then…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-12-04 Shaun McKinlay , Konstantin Borovkov

This paper studies nonstationary open dynamical systems from the statistical viewpoint. By open, we mean that trajectories may escape through holes in the phase space. By nonstationary, we mean that the dynamical model itself (as well as…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2020-05-19 Brett Geiger , William Ott

Markov chains are simple yet powerful mathematical structures to model temporally dependent processes. They generally assume stationary data, i.e., fixed transition probabilities between observations/states. However, live, real-world…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-27 Kutalmış Coşkun , Borahan Tümer , Bjarne C. Hiller , Martin Becker

We derive a general scheme to obtain quantum fluctuation relations for dynamical observables in open quantum systems. For concreteness we consider Markovian non-unitary dynamics that is unraveled in terms of quantum jump trajectories, and…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2021-07-14 Stefano Marcantoni , Carlos Pérez-Espigares , Juan P. Garrahan

We consider a discrete time hidden Markov model where the signal is a stationary Markov chain. When conditioned on the observations, the signal is a Markov chain in a random environment under the conditional measure. It is shown that this…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-09-24 Ramon van Handel

In this paper, we reveal a general relationship between model simplification and irreversibility based on the model of continuous-time Markov chains with time-scale separation. According to the topological structure of the fast process, we…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-06-08 Chen Jia

Coarse-graining techniques play a central role in reducing the complexity of stochastic models, and are typically characterised by a mapping which projects the full state of the system onto a smaller set of variables which captures the…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-09-28 Bastian Hilder , Upanshu Sharma

We revisit closed-loop performance guarantees for Model Predictive Control in the deterministic and stochastic cases, which extend to novel performance results applicable to receding horizon control of Partially Observable Markov Decision…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-05-01 Martin A. Sehr , Robert R. Bitmead

A piecewise-deterministic Markov process, specified by random jumps and switching semi-flows, as well as the associated Markov chain given by its post-jump locations, are investigated in this paper. The existence of an exponentially…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-12-07 Dawid Czapla , Katarzyna Horbacz , Hanna Wojewódka-Ściążko

Large dynamical fluctuations - atypical realizations of the dynamics sustained over long periods of time - can play a fundamental role in determining the properties of collective behavior of both classical and quantum non-equilibrium…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-07-18 Federico Carollo , Juan P. Garrahan , Igor Lesanovsky , Carlos Pérez-Espigares

We distinguish a mechanical representation of the world in terms of point masses with positions and momenta and the chemical representation of the world in terms of populations of different individuals, each with intrinsic stochasticity,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-05-07 Hong Qian

Modern learning systems increasingly interact with data that evolve over time and depend on hidden internal state. We ask a basic question: when is such a dynamical system learnable from observations alone? This paper proposes a research…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-23 Elad Hazan , Shai Shalev Shwartz , Nathan Srebro

Markov chains for probability distributions related to matrix product states and 1D Hamiltonians are introduced. With appropriate 'inverse temperature' schedules, these chains can be combined into a random approximation scheme for ground…

Strongly Correlated Electrons · Physics 2014-05-14 S. Iblisdir

We consider Markov chains with random transition probabilities which, moreover, fluctuate randomly with time. We describe such a system by a product of stochastic matrices, $U(t)=M_t\cdots M_1$, with the factors $M_i$ drawn independently…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2018-11-14 G. C. P. Innocentini , M. Novaes

Machine learning techniques not only offer efficient tools for modelling dynamical systems from data, but can also be employed as frontline investigative instruments for the underlying physics. Nontrivial information about the original…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2021-02-24 Francesco Borra , Marco Baldovin

The upper extremes of a Markov chain with regulary varying stationary marginal distribution are known to exhibit under general conditions a multiplicative random walk structure called the tail chain. More generally, if the Markov chain is…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Johan Segers

If the conditional information of a classical probability distribution of three random variables is zero, then it obeys a Markov chain condition. If the conditional information is close to zero, then it is known that the distance (minimum…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2017-08-02 Ben Ibinson , Noah Linden , Andreas Winter

To extend the classical concept of Markovianity to an open quantum system, different notions of the divisibility of its dynamics have been introduced. Here we analyze this issue by five complementary approaches: equations of motion,…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2019-07-26 Viktor Reimer , Maarten Rolf Wegewijs , Konstantin Nestmann , Mikhail Pletyukhov
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