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We derive new explicit bounds for the total variation distance between two convolution products of $n$ probability distributions, one of which having identical convolution factors. Approximations by finite signed measures of arbitrary order…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-11-06 Bero Roos

Counting experiments often rely on Monte Carlo simulations for predictions of Poisson expectations. The accompanying uncertainty from the finite Monte Carlo sample size can be incorporated into parameter estimation by modifying the Poisson…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2020-04-22 Thorsten Glüsenkamp

Group-invariant probability distributions appear in many data-generative models in machine learning, such as graphs, point clouds, and images. In practice, one often needs to estimate divergences between such distributions. In this work, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-05 Behrooz Tahmasebi , Stefanie Jegelka

This paper considers a variation of the full-information secretary problem where the random variables to be observed are independent but not necessary identically distributed. The main result is a sharp lower bound for the optimal win…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-12-12 Pieter C. Allaart , Jose A. Islas

The aim of the present work is to show that the results obtained earlier on the approximation of distributions of sums of independent summands by the accompanying compound Poisson laws and the estimates of the proximity of sequential…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-08-04 Friedrich Götze , Andrei Yu. Zaitsev

We introduce a sharpness functional for probabilistic models that quantifies sharpness as an intrinsic property of the probability distribution. The measure is derived based on a rank-based concentration principle that tracks upward…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-03 Pekka Syrjänen

It is well-known that assumptions of monotonicity in size-bias couplings may be used to prove simple, yet powerful, Poisson approximation results. Here we show how these assumptions may be relaxed, establishing explicit Poisson…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-01-30 Fraser Daly , Oliver Johnson

Distribution of the sum of independent identically distributed symmetric lattice vectors is approximated by the accompanying compound Poisson law and the second-order Hipp-type signed compound Poisson measure. Bergstr\"om -type asymptotic…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-22 Vydas Čekanavičius , Simona Jokubauskienė

The paper is concerned with approximating the distribution of a sum W of n integer valued random variables Y_i, whose distributions depend on the state of an underlying Markov chain X. The approximation is in terms of a translated Poisson…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-10-06 A. D. Barbour , Torgny Lindvall

The distribution of the sum of 1-dependent lattice vectors with supports on coordinate axes is approximated by a multivariate compound Poisson distribution and by signed compound Poisson measure. The local and $\ell_\alpha$-norms are used…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-09-11 V. Čekanavičius , P. Vellaisamy

Let $\{X_{i}, i\in J\}$ be a family of locally dependent non-negative integer-valued random variables with finite expectations and variances. We consider the sum $W=\sum_{i\in J}X_i$ and use Stein's method to establish general upper error…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-11-26 Zhonggen Su , Xiaolin Wang

In this paper, we are concerned with obtaining distribution-free concentration inequalities for mixture of independent Bernoulli variables that incorporate a notion of variance. Missing mass is the total probability mass associated to the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-03-05 Bahman Yari Saeed Khanloo

New bounds for the $k$-th order derivatives of the solutions of the normal and multivariate normal Stein equations are obtained. Our general order bounds involve fewer derivatives of the test function than those in the existing literature.…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-03-21 Robert E. Gaunt

In this paper, we propose a novel robust stochastic optimization approach with a distinctive consideration for rare events, in which divergence measures are used to bound the event-wise ambiguity sets. This is done by using the Poisson…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-09-14 Aakil M. Caunhye , Douglas Alem

This paper derives a new strong Gaussian approximation bound for the sum of independent random vectors. The approach relies on the optimal transport theory and yields \textit{explicit} dependence on the dimension size $p$ and the sample…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-09-06 Nazar Buzun , Nikolay Shvetsov , Dmitry V. Dylov

In this paper, we obtain error bound for binomial and negative binomial approximations to weighted sums of locally dependent random variables, using Stein's method. We also discuss approximation results for weighted sums of independent…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-10-20 Amit N. Kumar

We propose a consistent estimator of sharp bounds on the variance of the difference-in-means estimator in completely randomized experiments. Generalizing Robins [Stat. Med. 7 (1988) 773-785], our results resolve a well-known identification…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-05-27 Peter M. Aronow , Donald P. Green , Donald K. K. Lee

We study the problem of approximately recovering a probability distribution given noisy measurements of its Chebyshev polynomial moments. This problem arises broadly across algorithms, statistics, and machine learning. By leveraging a…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2026-05-20 Cameron Musco , Christopher Musco , Lucas Rosenblatt , Apoorv Vikram Singh

Multivariate Poisson approximation of the length spectrum of random surfaces is studied by means of the Chen-Stein method. This approach delivers simple and explicit error bounds in Poisson limit theorems. They are used to prove that…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-11-28 Bram Petri , Christoph Thaele

We approximate the distribution of the sum of independent but not necessarily identically distributed Bernoulli random variables using a shifted binomial distribution where the three parameters (the number of trials, the probability of…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-04-02 Vydas Čekanavičius , Erol A. Peköz , Adrian Röllin , Michael Shwartz