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In order to steer e-commerce users towards making a purchase, marketers rely upon predictions of when users exit without purchasing. Previously, such predictions were based upon hidden Markov models (HMMs) due to their ability of modeling…
Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are powerful tools for modeling sequential data, where the underlying states evolve in a stochastic manner and are only indirectly observable. Traditional HMM approaches are well-established for linear sequences,…
Recent years have seen a resurgence in interest in marketing mix models (MMMs), which are aggregate-level models of marketing effectiveness. Often these models incorporate nonlinear effects, and either implicitly or explicitly assume that…
Suppose that we are given a time series where consecutive samples are believed to come from a probabilistic source, that the source changes from time to time and that the total number of sources is fixed. Our objective is to estimate the…
Biomedical signals carry signature rhythms of complex physiological processes that control our daily bodily activity. The properties of these rhythms indicate the nature of interaction dynamics among physiological processes that maintain a…
Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are learning methods for pattern recognition. The probabilistic HMMs have been one of the most used techniques based on the Bayesian model. First-order probabilistic HMMs were adapted to the theory of belief…
Hidden Markov models have successfully been applied as models of discrete time series in many fields. Often, when applied in practice, the parameters of these models have to be estimated. The currently predominating identification methods,…
A particular challenge for disease progression modeling is the heterogeneity of a disease and its manifestations in the patients. Existing approaches often assume the presence of a single disease progression characteristics which is…
We consider finite state space stationary hidden Markov models (HMMs) in the situation where the number of hidden states is unknown. We provide a frequentist asymptotic evaluation of Bayesian analysis methods. Our main result gives…
1. Electronic telemetry is frequently used to document animal movement through time. Methods that can identify underlying behaviors driving specific movement patterns can help us understand how and why animals use available space, thereby…
We consider the task of learning mappings from sequential data to real-valued responses. We present and evaluate an approach to learning a type of hidden Markov model (HMM) for regression. The learning process involves inferring the…
In the classical setting, the training of a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) typically relies on a single, sufficiently long observation sequence that can be regarded as representative of the underlying stochastic process. In this context, the…
Electronic health records contain valuable information for monitoring patients' health trajectories over time. Disease progression models have been developed to understand the underlying patterns and dynamics of diseases using these data as…
High-dimensional multivariate longitudinal data, which arise when many outcome variables are measured repeatedly over time, are becoming increasingly common in social, behavioral and health sciences. We propose a latent variable model for…
The technological applications of hidden Markov models have been extremely diverse and successful, including natural language processing, gesture recognition, gene sequencing, and Kalman filtering of physical measurements. HMMs are highly…
Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is often regarded as the dynamical model of choice in many fields and applications. It is also at the heart of most state-of-the-art speech recognition systems since the 70's. However, from Gaussian mixture models…
Eye Movement analysis with Hidden Markov Models (EMHMM) is a method for modeling eye fixation sequences using hidden Markov models (HMMs). In this report, we run a simulation study to investigate the estimation error for learning HMMs with…
We show that maximum entropy (maxent) models can be modeled with certain kinds of HMMs, allowing us to construct maxent models with hidden variables, hidden state sequences, or other characteristics. The models can be trained using the…
In this paper, we introduce a methodology that allows to model behavioral trajectories of users in online social media. First, we illustrate how to leverage the probabilistic framework provided by Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) to represent…
Early detection of chronic diseases is beneficial to healthcare by providing a golden opportunity for timely interventions. Although numerous prior studies have successfully used machine learning (ML) models for disease diagnoses, they…