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Related papers: Optional P\'{o}lya tree and Bayesian inference

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We present a graph theoretical approach to the configurational statistics of random tree-like objects, such as randomly branching polymers. In particular, for ideal trees we show that Pr\"ufer labelling provides: (i) direct access to the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-12-02 Pieter H. W. van der Hoek , Angelo Rosa , Ralf Everaers

Modeling binary and categorical data is one of the most commonly encountered tasks of applied statisticians and econometricians. While Bayesian methods in this context have been available for decades now, they often require a high level of…

Computation · Statistics 2023-07-03 Gregor Zens , Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter , Helga Wagner

We investigate the statistics of trees grown from some initial tree by attaching links to preexisting vertices, with attachment probabilities depending only on the valence of these vertices. We consider the asymptotic mass distribution that…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 François David , Philippe Di Francesco , Emmanuel Guitter , Thordur Jonsson

Motivated by investigating spatio-temporal patterns of the distribution of continuous variables, we consider describing the conditional distribution function of the response variable incorporating spatio-temporal components given…

This paper proposes an online tree-based Bayesian approach for reinforcement learning. For inference, we employ a generalised context tree model. This defines a distribution on multivariate Gaussian piecewise-linear models, which can be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-05-05 Nikolaos Tziortziotis , Christos Dimitrakakis , Konstantinos Blekas

We study random trees which are invariant in law under the operation of contracting each edge independently with probability $p\in(0,1)$. We show that all such trees can be constructed through Poissonian sampling from a certain class of…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-06-20 Olivier Hénard , Pascal Maillard

We propose a fully Bayesian approach for causal inference with multivariate categorical data based on staged tree models, a class of probabilistic graphical models capable of representing asymmetric and context-specific dependencies. To…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-06 Andrea Cremaschi , Manuele Leonelli , Gherardo Varando

Many machine learning tools for regression are based on recursive partitioning of the covariate space into smaller regions, where the regression function can be estimated locally. Among these, regression trees and their ensembles have…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-11-30 Stephanie van der Pas , Veronika Rockova

This work studies the statistical implications of using features comprised of general linear combinations of covariates to partition the data in randomized decision tree and forest regression algorithms. Using random tessellation theory in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-05 Eliza O'Reilly

We consider the biased random walk on a tree constructed from the set of finite self-avoiding walks on a lattice, and use it to construct probability measures on infinite self-avoiding walks. The limit measure (if it exists) obtained when…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-12-25 Vincent Beffara , Cong Bang Huynh

Dynamic regression trees are an attractive option for automatic regression and classification with complicated response surfaces in on-line application settings. We create a sequential tree model whose state changes in time with the…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-11-23 Matthew A. Taddy , Robert B. Gramacy , Nicholas G. Polson

Survival models are used to analyze time-to-event data in a variety of disciplines. Proportional hazard models provide interpretable parameter estimates, but proportional hazards assumptions are not always appropriate. Non-parametric models…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-08 Richard D. Payne , Nilabja Guha , Bani K. Mallick

In the field of decision trees, most previous studies have difficulty ensuring the statistical optimality of a prediction of new data and suffer from overfitting because trees are usually used only to represent prediction functions to be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-13 Yuta Nakahara , Shota Saito , Naoki Ichijo , Koki Kazama , Toshiyasu Matsushima

We consider the problem of change-point detection in multivariate time-series. The multivariate distribution of the observations is supposed to follow a graphical model, whose graph and parameters are affected by abrupt changes throughout…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-06-20 Loïc Schwaller , Stéphane Robin

We exploit the multiplicative structure of P\'olya Tree priors to establish novel consistency results on $p$-dimensional trees, conditions to obtain Kullback-Leibler minimax contraction rates for univariate density estimation and a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-06 Fernando Corrêa , Rafael Bassi Stern , Julio Michael Stern

Sample size determination is crucial in experimental design, especially in traffic and transport research. Frequentist statistics require a fixed sample size determined by power analysis, which cannot be adjusted once the experiment starts.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-04 Xiaomi Yang , Carol Flannagan , Jonas Bärgman

We introduce a general method to count unlabeled combinatorial structures and to efficiently generate them at random. The approach is based on pointing unlabeled structures in an "unbiased" way that a structure of size n gives rise to n…

Discrete Mathematics · Computer Science 2011-03-29 Manuel Bodirsky , Éric Fusy , Mihyun Kang , Stefan Vigerske

Bayesian Additive Regression Trees [BART, Chipman et al., 2010] have gained significant popularity due to their remarkable predictive performance and ability to quantify uncertainty. However, standard decision tree models rely on recursive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-20 Stamatina Lamprinakou , Huiyan Sang , Bledar A. Konomi , Ligang Lu

We present convincing empirical evidence for an effective and general strategy for building accurate small models. Such models are attractive for interpretability and also find use in resource-constrained environments. The strategy is to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-30 Abhishek Ghose

The adoption of the distributed paradigm has allowed applications to increase their scalability, robustness and fault tolerance, but it has also complicated their structure, leading to an exponential growth of the applications'…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2017-05-23 Ioannis Giannakopoulos , Dimitrios Tsoumakos , Nectarios Koziris