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Models with intractable likelihood functions arise in areas including network analysis and spatial statistics, especially those involving Gibbs random fields. Posterior parameter es timation in these settings is termed a doubly-intractable…

Computation · Statistics 2018-10-16 Lampros Bouranis , Nial Friel , Florian Maire

We study the properties of several likelihood-based statistics commonly used in testing for the presence of a known signal under a mixture model with known background, but unknown signal fraction. Under the null hypothesis of no signal, all…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2018-12-26 Igor Volobouev , A. Alexandre Trindade

Parametric inference posits a statistical model that is a specified family of probability distributions. Restricted inference, e.g., restricted likelihood ratio testing, attempts to exploit the structure of a statistical submodel that is a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-03-22 Michael W. Trosset , Carey E. Priebe

A method is introduced for approximate marginal likelihood inference via adaptive Gaussian quadrature in mixed models with a single grouping factor. The core technical contribution is an algorithm for computing the exact gradient of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-13 Alex Stringer

Many scientifically well-motivated statistical models in natural, engineering, and environmental sciences are specified through a generative process. However, in some cases, it may not be possible to write down the likelihood for these…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-17 Sanjay Chaudhuri , Subhroshekhar Ghosh , David J. Nott , Kim Cuc Pham

We deal with a general class of extreme-value regression models introduced by Barreto- Souza and Vasconcellos (2011). Our goal is to derive an adjusted likelihood ratio statistic that is approximately distributed as \c{hi}2 with a high…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-08-14 Silvia L. P. Ferrari , Eliane C. Pinheiro

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has become an essential tool for the analysis of complex stochastic models when the likelihood function is numerically unavailable. However, the well-established statistical method of empirical…

Computation · Statistics 2015-06-05 K. L. Mengersen , P. Pudlo , C. P. Robert

The problem of fitting an event distribution when the total expected number of events is not fixed, keeps appearing in experimental studies. In a chi-square fit, if overall normalization is one of the parameters parameters to be fit, the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-07-01 Byron Roe

We investigate the problem of semi-parametric maximum likelihood under constraints on summary statistics. Such a procedure results in a discrete probability distribution that maximises the likelihood among all such distributions under the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-21 Subhro Ghosh , Sanjay Chaudhuri

Estimation of crossed random effects models commonly requires computational costs that grow faster than linearly in the sample size $N$, often as fast as $\Omega(N^{3/2})$, making them unsuitable for large data sets. For non-Gaussian…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-01 Ruggero Bellio , Swarnadip Ghosh , Art B. Owen , Cristiano Varin

We study statistical inference and distributionally robust solution methods for stochastic optimization problems, focusing on confidence intervals for optimal values and solutions that achieve exact coverage asymptotically. We develop a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-07-03 John Duchi , Peter Glynn , Hongseok Namkoong

We advance the theory of parametric bootstrap in constructing highly efficient empirical best (EB) prediction intervals of small area means. The coverage error of such a prediction interval is of the order $O(m^{-3/2})$, where $m$ is the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-12 Yuting Chen , Masayo Y. Hirose , Partha Lahiri

In computational mechanics, multiple models are often present to describe a physical system. While Bayesian model selection is a helpful tool to compare these models using measurement data, it requires the computationally expensive…

Computation · Statistics 2025-04-14 Subhayan De , Reza Farzad , Patrick T. Brewick , Erik A. Johnson , Steven F. Wojtkiewicz

Datasets in the fields of climate and environment are often very large and irregularly spaced. To model such datasets, the widely used Gaussian process models in spatial statis- tics face tremendous challenges due to the prohibitive…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-05-31 Huang Huang , Ying Sun

Motivated by parametric models for which the likelihood is analytically unavailable, numerically unstable, or prohibitively expensive to compute or optimize, we develop a prior- and likelihood-free framework for fully probabilistic…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-17 Leonardo Cella , Emily C. Hector

Meta analysis is commonly-used to synthesize multiple results from individual studies. However, its validation is usually threatened by publication bias and between-study heterogeneity, which can be captured by the Copas selection model.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-21 Mengke Li , Yukun Liu , Pengfei Li , Jing Qin

Most of the existing methods for estimating the local intrinsic dimension of a data distribution do not scale well to high-dimensional data. Many of them rely on a non-parametric nearest neighbors approach which suffers from the curse of…

Nonprobability (convenience) samples are increasingly sought to stabilize estimations for one or more population variables of interest that are performed using a randomized survey (reference) sample by increasing the effective sample size.…

This paper considers an empirical likelihood inference for parameters defined by general estimating equations, when data are missing at random. The efficiency of existing estimators depends critically on correctly specifying the conditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-12-06 Tianqing Liu , Xiaohui Yuan , Zhaohai Li , Aiyi Liu

Laplace approximations are commonly used to approximate high-dimensional integrals in statistical applications, but the quality of such approximations as the dimension of the integral grows is not well understood. In this paper, we prove a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-08-21 Helen Ogden