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This paper is concerned with detecting the presence of out of sample predictability in linear predictive regressions with a potentially large set of candidate predictors. We propose a procedure based on out of sample MSE comparisons that is…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-10-17 Jesus Gonzalo , Jean-Yves Pitarakis

Two non-intrusive uncertainty propagation approaches are proposed for the performance analysis of engineering systems described by expensive-to-evaluate deterministic computer models with parameters defined as interval variables. These…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-02-15 Alice Cicirello , Filippo Giunta

This article proposes a Bayesian nonparametric method for forecasting, imputation, and clustering in sparsely observed, multivariate time series data. The method is appropriate for jointly modeling hundreds of time series with widely…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-27 Feras A. Saad , Vikash K. Mansinghka

We develop a scalable multi-step Monte Carlo algorithm for inference under a large class of nonparametric Bayesian models for clustering and classification. Each step is "embarrassingly parallel" and can be implemented using the same Markov…

Computation · Statistics 2018-06-08 Yang Ni , Peter Müller , Maurice Diesendruck , Sinead Williamson , Yitan Zhu , Yuan Ji

Nonparametric and nonlinear measures of statistical dependence between pairs of random variables are important tools in modern data analysis. In particular the emergence of large data sets can now support the relaxation of linearity…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-05-13 Sarah Filippi , Chris Holmes

Assessment of replicability is critical to ensure the quality and rigor of scientific research. In this paper, we discuss inference and modeling principles for replicability assessment. Targeting distinct application scenarios, we propose…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-11 Yi Zhao , Xiaoquan Wen

In this article, we propose a new method for the fundamental task of testing for dependence between two groups of variables. The response densities under the null hypothesis of independence and the alternative hypothesis of dependence are…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-01-29 Yimin Kao , Brian J Reich , Howard D Bondell

This article introduces a Bayesian nonparametric method for quantifying the relative evidence in a dataset in favour of the dependence or independence of two variables conditional on a third. The approach uses Polya tree priors on spaces of…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-15 Onur Teymur , Sarah Filippi

Many modern experiments, such as microarray gene expression and genome-wide association studies, present the problem of estimating a large number of parallel effects. Bayesian inference is a popular approach for analyzing such data by…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-26 J G Liao , Arthur Berg , Timothy L McMurry

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach to the problem of jointly modeling multiple related time series. Our approach is based on the discovery of a set of latent, shared dynamical behaviors. Using a beta process prior, the size of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-11-21 Emily B. Fox , Erik B. Sudderth , Michael I. Jordan , Alan S. Willsky

We study asymptotic properties of Bayesian multiple testing procedures and provide sufficient conditions for strong consistency under general dependence structure. We also consider a novel Bayesian multiple testing procedure and associated…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-15 Noirrit K. Chandra , Sourabh Bhattacharya

Bayesian optimization is a popular framework for the optimization of black box functions. Multifidelity methods allows to accelerate Bayesian optimization by exploiting low-fidelity representations of expensive objective functions. Popular…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-08 Francesco Di Fiore , Laura Mainini

Given discrete time observations over a growing time interval, we consider a nonparametric Bayesian approach to estimation of the L\'evy density of a L\'evy process belonging to a flexible class of infinite activity subordinators. Posterior…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-09-10 Denis Belomestny , Shota Gugushvili , Moritz Schauer , Peter Spreij

It is argued that the Calibrated Bayesian (CB) approach to statistical inference capitalizes on the strength of Bayesian and frequentist approaches to statistical inference. In the CB approach, inferences under a particular model are…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-08-10 Roderick Little

Big Data often presents as massive non-probability samples. Not only is the selection mechanism often unknown, but larger data volume amplifies the relative contribution of selection bias to total error. Existing bias adjustment approaches…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-29 Ali Rafei , Carol A. C. Flannagan , Brady T. West , Michael R. Elliott

Regression is one of the most commonly used statistical techniques. However, testing regression systems is a great challenge because of the absence of test oracle in general. In this paper, we show that Metamorphic Testing is an effective…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-24 Quang-Hung Luu , Man F. Lau , Sebastian P. H. Ng , Tsong Yueh Chen

We develop a unifying framework for Bayesian nonparametric regression to study the rates of contraction with respect to the integrated $L_2$-distance without assuming the regression function space to be uniformly bounded. The framework is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-04-30 Fangzheng Xie , Wei Jin , Yanxun Xu

Empirical Bayes methods are widely used for large-scale inference, yet most classical approaches assume homoscedastic observations and focus primarily on posterior mean estimation. We develop a nonparametric empirical Bayes framework for…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-24 Zhigen Zhao , Shonosuke Sugaasawa

The Stratified Bootstrap Test (SBT) provides a nonparametric, resampling-based framework for assessing the stability of group-specific ranking patterns in multivariate survey or rating data. By repeatedly resampling observations and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-18 Ehsan Mohammadi , Fanghua Chen , Yizhou Cai , Yun Yang , Ting Fung Ma , Lu Zhou

Bayesian optimization is a popular tool for data-efficient optimization of expensive objective functions. In real-life applications like engineering design, the designer often wants to take multiple objectives as well as input uncertainty…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-02-28 J. Qing , I. Couckuyt , T. Dhaene