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Statisticians often use Monte Carlo methods to approximate probability distributions, primarily with Markov chain Monte Carlo and importance sampling. Sequential Monte Carlo samplers are a class of algorithms that combine both techniques to…

Computation · Statistics 2022-06-20 Chenguang Dai , Jeremy Heng , Pierre E. Jacob , Nick Whiteley

Many random processes can be simulated as the output of a deterministic model accepting random inputs. Such a model usually describes a complex mathematical or physical stochastic system and the randomness is introduced in the input…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-11-21 A. Gokcen Mahmutoglu , Alper T. Erdogan , Alper Demir

In parameter estimation problems one computes a posterior distribution over uncertain parameters defined jointly by a prior distribution, a model, and noisy data. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is often used for the numerical solution of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-11-15 Matthias Morzfeld , Marcus S. Day , Ray W. Grout , George Shu Heng Pau , Stefan A. Finsterle , John B. Bell

Adaptive and interacting Markov Chains Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are a novel class of non-Markovian algorithms aimed at improving the simulation efficiency for complicated target distributions. In this paper, we study a general…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-07-15 Gersende Fort , Eric Moulines , Pierre Priouret , Pierre Vandekerkhove

We study the large-scale dynamics of event chain Monte Carlo algorithms in one dimension, and their relation to the true self-avoiding walk. In particular, we study the influence of stress, and different forms of interaction on the…

Computational Physics · Physics 2024-10-14 A. C. Maggs

We propose a new method for Monte Carlo solution of non-linear integral equations by combining the Newton-Kantorovich method for solving non-linear equations with the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for solving linear equations. The…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2015-06-16 Krzysztof Bozek , Krzysztof Kutak , Wieslaw Placzek

Markov chain Monte Carlo is widely used in a variety of scientific applications to generate approximate samples from intractable distributions. A thorough understanding of the convergence and mixing properties of these Markov chains can be…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-23 Saptarshi Chakraborty , Kshitij Khare

Closed-form stochastic filtering equations can be derived in a general setting where probability distributions are replaced by some specific outer measures. In this article, we study how the principles of the sequential Monte Carlo method…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-07 Jeremie Houssineau , Branko Ristic

In this paper we investigate the continuum limits of a class of Markov chains. The investigation of such limits is motivated by the desire to model very large networks. We show that under some conditions, a sequence of Markov chains…

Networking and Internet Architecture · Computer Science 2011-06-22 Yang Zhang , Edwin K. P. Chong , Jan Hannig , Donald Estep

Historically time-reversibility of the transitions or processes underpinning Markov chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC) has played a key r\^ole in their development, while the self-adjointness of associated operators together with the use of…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-17 Christophe Andrieu , Samuel Livingstone

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are employed to sample from a given distribution of interest, whenever either the distribution does not exist in closed form, or, if it does, no efficient method to simulate an independent sample from…

Computation · Statistics 2008-07-22 Ioana A. Cosma , Masoud Asgharian

We propose a Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from high dimensional probability distributions that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo and importance sampling. We provide a careful theoretical analysis, including guarantees on robustness to…

Computation · Statistics 2019-09-18 Giacomo Zanella , Gareth Roberts

We study a recently introduced gradient-based Markov chain Monte Carlo method based on 'Barker dynamics'. We provide a full derivation of the method from first principles, placing it within a wider class of continuous-time Markov jump…

Computation · Statistics 2021-09-03 Max Hird , Samuel Livingstone , Giacomo Zanella

In the last years, many authors studied a class of continuous time semi-Markov processes obtained by time-changing Markov processes by hitting times of independent subordinators. Such processes are governed by integro-differential…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-02-24 Angelica Pachon , Federico Polito , Costantino Ricciuti

In this paper we address the problem of Monte Carlo approximation of posterior probability distributions in stochastic kinetic models (SKMs). SKMs are multivariate Markov jump processes that model the interactions among species in…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-04-22 Eugenia Koblents , Joaquín Míguez

We develop a novel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method that exploits a hierarchy of models of increasing complexity to efficiently generate samples from an unnormalized target distribution. Broadly, the method rewrites the Multilevel…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-05 Mikkel B. Lykkegaard , Tim J. Dodwell , Colin Fox , Grigorios Mingas , Robert Scheichl

Monte Carlo methods represent the "de facto" standard for approximating complicated integrals involving multidimensional target distributions. In order to generate random realizations from the target distribution, Monte Carlo techniques use…

Computation · Statistics 2022-01-21 L. Martino , V. Elvira , D. Luengo , J. Corander

Markov chain Monte Carlo is a widely-used technique for generating a dependent sequence of samples from complex distributions. Conventionally, these methods require a source of independent random variates. Most implementations use…

Computation · Statistics 2012-04-17 Iain Murray , Lloyd T. Elliott

In this paper we propose an efficient variance reduction approach for additive functionals of Markov chains relying on a novel discrete time martingale representation. Our approach is fully non-asymptotic and does not require the knowledge…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-22 D. Belomestny , E. Moulines , S. Samsonov

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are a class of techniques to sample approximately from any sequence of probability distributions using a combination of importance sampling and resampling steps. This paper is concerned with the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-03-05 Pierre Del Moral , Arnaud Doucet , Ajay Jasra