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This work focuses on the estimation of multiple change-points in a time-varying Ising model that evolves piece-wise constantly. The aim is to identify both the moments at which significant changes occur in the Ising model, as well as the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-01 Batiste Le Bars , Pierre Humbert , Argyris Kalogeratos , Nicolas Vayatis

We study online change point detection for multivariate inhomogeneous Poisson point process time series. This setting arises commonly in applications such as earthquake seismology, climate monitoring, and epidemic surveillance, yet remains…

The Poisson process is the most elementary continuous-time stochastic process that models a stream of repeating events. It is uniquely characterised by a single parameter called the rate. Instead of a single value for this rate, we here…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-05 Alexander Erreygers , Jasper De Bock

Peak estimation bounds extreme values of a function of state along trajectories of a dynamical system. This paper focuses on extending peak estimation to continuous and discrete settings with time-independent and time-dependent uncertainty.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-03-25 Jared Miller , Didier Henrion , Mario Sznaier , Milan Korda

We study a stochastic differential equation driven by a Poisson point process, which models continuous changes in a population's environment, as well as the stochastic fixation of beneficial mutations that might compensate for this change.…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-07-21 Elma Nassar , Etienne Pardoux

The interest for change detection in the field of remote sensing has increased in the last few years. Searching for changes in satellite images has many useful applications, ranging from land cover and land use analysis to anomaly…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-07-14 Antonio Di Pilato , Nicolò Taggio , Alexis Pompili , Michele Iacobellis , Adriano Di Florio , Davide Passarelli , Sergio Samarelli

The work lays the foundations of the theory of changeable sets. In author opinion, this theory, in the process of it's development and improvement, can become one of the tools of solving the sixth Hilbert problem least for physics of…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2012-07-18 Ya. I. Grushka

Changepoint models typically assume the data within each segment are independent and identically distributed conditional on some parameters which change across segments. This construction may be inadequate when data are subject to local…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-10 Karl L. Hallgren , Nicholas A. Heard , Niall M. Adams

This paper addresses the problem of change-point detection on sequences of high-dimensional and heterogeneous observations, which also possess a periodic temporal structure. Due to the dimensionality problem, when the time between…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-25 Pablo Moreno-Muñoz , David Ramírez , Antonio Artés-Rodríguez

Optimal algorithms are developed for robust detection of changes in non-stationary processes. These are processes in which the distribution of the data after change varies with time. The decision-maker does not have access to precise…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-14 Yingze Hou , Yousef Oleyaeimotlagh , Rahul Mishra , Hoda Bidkhori , Taposh Banerjee

Accurate uncertainty estimates are essential for deploying deep object detectors in safety-critical systems. The development and evaluation of probabilistic object detectors have been hindered by shortcomings in existing performance…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-12-09 Georg Hess , Christoffer Petersson , Lennart Svensson

Without imposing prior distributional knowledge underlying multivariate time series of interest, we propose a nonparametric change-point detection approach to estimate the number of change points and their locations along the temporal axis.…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-13 Xiaodong Wang , Fushing Hsieh

Many real-world problems, e.g. object detection, have outputs that are naturally expressed as sets of entities. This creates a challenge for traditional deep neural networks which naturally deal with structured outputs such as vectors,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2018-10-03 S. Hamid Rezatofighi , Roman Kaskman , Farbod T. Motlagh , Qinfeng Shi , Daniel Cremers , Laura Leal-Taixé , Ian Reid

Change detection, as an important and widely applied technique in the field of remote sensing, aims to analyze changes in surface areas over time and has broad applications in areas such as environmental monitoring, urban development, and…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-10-11 Zihan Yu , Tianxiao Li , Yuxin Zhu , Rongze Pan

Change point estimation is often formulated as a search for the maximum of a gain function describing improved fits when segmenting the data. Searching through all candidates requires $O(n)$ evaluations of the gain function for an interval…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-22 Solt Kovács , Housen Li , Lorenz Haubner , Axel Munk , Peter Bühlmann

Detecting changepoints in datasets with many variates is a data science challenge of increasing importance. Motivated by the problem of detecting changes in the incidence of terrorism from a global terrorism database, we propose a novel…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-30 S. O. Tickle , I. A. Eckley , P. Fearnhead

This paper examines the joint problem of detection and identification of a sudden and unobservable change in the probability distribution function (pdf) of a sequence of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables to…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2009-04-16 Savas Dayanik , Christian Goulding , H. Vincent Poor

In this paper we analyze the asymptotic properties of l1 penalized maximum likelihood estimation of signals with piece-wise constant mean values and/or variances. The focus is on segmentation of a non-stationary time series with respect to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-01-22 Cristian R. Rojas , Bo Wahlberg

We consider the behavior of spatial point processes when subjected to a class of linear transformations indexed by a variable T. It was shown in Ellis [Adv. in Appl. Probab. 18 (1986) 646-659] that, under mild assumptions, the transformed…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Dominic Schuhmacher

The change point is a moment of an abrupt alteration in the data distribution. Current methods for change point detection are based on recurrent neural methods suitable for sequential data. However, recent works show that transformers based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-19 Anna Dmitrienko , Evgenia Romanenkova , Alexey Zaytsev