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In statistical modeling of computer experiments sometimes prior information is available about the underlying function. For example, the physical system simulated by the computer code may be known to be monotone with respect to some or all…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-06-17 Shirin Golchi , Derek R. Bingham , Hugh Chipman , David A. Campbell

In many inference problems, the evaluation of complex and costly models is often required. In this context, Bayesian methods have become very popular in several fields over the last years, in order to obtain parameter inversion, model…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2021-07-21 Luca Martino , Víctor Elvira , Javier López-Santiago , Gustau Camps-Valls

This paper explores Bayesian estimation for categorical data, focusing on simple yet effective models that provide a foundation for applying more advanced methods accurately and reliably in real-world applications. We begin by revisiting…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-03 Jan Kalina

Bayesian tests on the symmetry of the generalized von Mises model for planar directions (Gatto and Jammalamadaka, 2007) are introduced. The generalized von Mises distribution is a flexible model that can be axially symmetric or asymmetric,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-05-04 Sara Salvador , Riccardo Gatto

Background: Mendelian randomization (MR) has been widely applied to causal inference in medical research. It uses genetic variants as instrumental variables (IVs) to investigate putative causal relationship between an exposure and an…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-04 Linyi Zou , Hui Guo , Carlo Berzuini

This paper deals with some computational aspects in the Bayesian analysis of statistical models with intractable normalizing constants. In the presence of intractable normalizing constants in the likelihood function, traditional MCMC…

Computation · Statistics 2008-04-22 Yves Atchade , Nicolas Lartillot , Christian P. Robert

In Bayesian applications, there is a huge interest in rapid and accurate estimation of the posterior distribution, particularly for high dimensional or hierarchical models. In this article, we propose to use optimization to solve for a…

Computation · Statistics 2021-03-12 Leo L. Duan

Many high dimensional integrals can be reduced to the problem of finding the relative measures of two sets. Often one set will be exponentially larger than the other, making it difficult to compare the sizes. A standard method of dealing…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-12-19 Mark Huber , Sarah Schott

An important feature of Bayesian statistics is the opportunity to do sequential inference: the posterior distribution obtained after seeing a dataset can be used as prior for a second inference. However, when Monte Carlo sampling methods…

Computation · Statistics 2019-06-24 Bram Thijssen , Lodewyk F. A. Wessels

The Bayesian evidence, crucial ingredient for model selection, is arguably the most important quantity in Bayesian data analysis: at the same time, however, it is also one of the most difficult to compute. In this paper we present a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-14 Stefano Rinaldi , Gabriele Demasi , Walter Del Pozzo , Otto A. Hannuksela

A new approach for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and selection is proposed, based on the mixture model approach for hypothesis testing in Kaniav et al., 2014. Inheriting from the good properties of this approach, it extends BMA to cases…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-02 Merlin Keller , Kaniav Kamary

Physics increasingly uses Bayesian techniques for systematic data analysis and model-to-data comparison. This paper describes how these methods can be implemented to answer questions of relevance to teaching laboratories. It demonstrates…

Physics Education · Physics 2022-07-21 Matthew Heffernan

We look at the distribution of the Bayesian evidence for mock realizations of supernova and baryon acoustic oscillation data. The ratios of Bayesian evidences of different models are often used to perform model selection. The significance…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2022-07-20 Ryan E. Keeley , Arman Shafieloo

The Bayes factor is a widely used criterion in model comparison and its logarithm is a difference of out-of-sample predictive scores under the logarithmic scoring rule. However, when some of the candidate models involve vague priors on…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-07 Stephane Shao , Pierre E. Jacob , Jie Ding , Vahid Tarokh

This paper introduces several depths for random sets with possibly non-convex realisations, proposes ways to estimate the depths based on the samples and compares them with existing ones. The depths are further applied for the comparison…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-06 Vesna Gotovac Đogaš

Clustering is widely studied in statistics and machine learning, with applications in a variety of fields. As opposed to classical algorithms which return a single clustering solution, Bayesian nonparametric models provide a posterior over…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-11 Sara Wade , Zoubin Ghahramani

Due to increased awareness of data protection and corresponding laws many data, especially involving sensitive personal information, are not publicly accessible. Accordingly, many data collecting agencies only release aggregated data, e.g.…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-12 Rajbir-Singh Nirwan , Nils Bertschinger

We present a detailed mathematical study of the Monte Carlo replica method as applied in the global fitting literature from the high-energy physics theory community. For the first time, we provide a rigorous derivation of the parameter…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2024-04-17 Mark N. Costantini , Maeve Madigan , Luca Mantani , James M. Moore

Hierarchical models are versatile tools for joint modeling of data sets arising from different, but related, sources. Fully Bayesian inference may, however, become computationally prohibitive if the source-specific data models are complex,…

Computation · Statistics 2016-05-06 Ritabrata Dutta , Paul Blomstedt , Samuel Kaski

Case-deleted analysis is a popular method for evaluating the influence of a subset of cases on inference. The use of Monte Carlo estimation strategies in complicated Bayesian settings leads naturally to the use of importance sampling…

Computation · Statistics 2008-09-17 Ilenia Epifani , Steven N. MacEachern , Mario Peruggia