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Bayesian model comparison is often based on the posterior distribution over the set of compared models. This distribution is often observed to concentrate on a single model even when other measures of model fit or forecasting ability…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-03-10 Oscar Oelrich , Shutong Ding , Måns Magnusson , Aki Vehtari , Mattias Villani

Non-deterministic measurements are common in real-world scenarios: the performance of a stochastic optimization algorithm or the total reward of a reinforcement learning agent in a chaotic environment are just two examples in which…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-08-31 Etor Arza , Josu Ceberio , Ekhiñe Irurozki , Aritz Pérez

A popular approach to semi-supervised learning proceeds by endowing the input data with a graph structure in order to extract geometric information and incorporate it into a Bayesian framework. We introduce new theory that gives appropriate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-14 Nicolas Garcia Trillos , Zachary Kaplan , Thabo Samakhoana , Daniel Sanz-Alonso

Implementing Bayesian inference is often computationally challenging in applications involving complex models, and sometimes calculating the likelihood itself is difficult. Synthetic likelihood is one approach for carrying out inference…

Computation · Statistics 2021-03-15 David T. Frazier , David J. Nott , Christopher Drovandi , Robert Kohn

In this paper we propose a Bayesian answer to testing problems when the hypotheses are not well separated. The idea of the method is to study the posterior distribution of a discrepancy measure between the parameter and the model we want to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-06-28 Jean-Bernard Salomond

Bayesian sampling is an important task in statistics and machine learning. Over the past decade, many ensemble-type sampling methods have been proposed. In contrast to the classical Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, these new methods deploy…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-05-14 Shi Chen , Zhiyan Ding , Qin Li

Bi-clustering is a useful approach in analyzing biological data when observations come from heterogeneous groups and have a large number of features. We outline a general Bayesian approach in tackling bi-clustering problems in moderate to…

Applications · Statistics 2021-02-11 Han Yan , Jiexing Wu , Yang Li , Jun S. Liu

The histogram method is a powerful non-parametric approach for estimating the probability density function of a continuous variable. But the construction of a histogram, compared to the parametric approaches, demands a large number of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-12-29 Hideaki Kim , Hiroshi Sawada

The aim of this paper is to introduce a new Monte Carlo method based on importance sampling techniques for the simulation of stochastic differential equations. The main idea is to combine random walk on squares or rectangles methods with…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-10-22 Madalina Deaconu , Antoine Lejay

We present a novel technique for tailoring Bayesian quadrature (BQ) to model selection. The state-of-the-art for comparing the evidence of multiple models relies on Monte Carlo methods, which converge slowly and are unreliable for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-04 Henry Chai , Jean-Francois Ton , Roman Garnett , Michael A. Osborne

A Bayesian approach is used to estimate the covariance matrix of Gaussian data. Ideas from Gaussian graphical models and model selection are used to construct a prior for the covariance matrix that is a mixture over all decomposable graphs.…

Methodology · Statistics 2007-06-12 Helen Armstrong , Christopher K. Carter , Kevin F. Wong , Robert Kohn

Testing for the equality of two high-dimensional distributions is a challenging problem, and this becomes even more challenging when the sample size is small. Over the last few decades, several graph-based two-sample tests have been…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-11-22 Soham Sarkar , Rahul Biswas , Anil K. Ghosh

Consider two random variables contaminated by two unknown transformations. The aim of this paper is to test the equality of those transformations. Two cases are distinguished: first, the two random variables have known distributions.…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-11-01 Mohamed Boutahar , Denys Pommeret

The ranking problem is to order a collection of units by some unobserved parameter, based on observations from the associated distribution. This problem arises naturally in a number of contexts, such as business, where we may want to rank…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-09-04 Toby Kenney

This paper considers the objective comparison of stochastic models to solve inverse problems, more specifically image restoration. Most often, model comparison is addressed in a supervised manner, that can be time-consuming and partly…

Computation · Statistics 2020-10-14 Benjamin Harroué , Jean-François Giovannelli , Marcelo Pereyra

Statistical models can involve implicitly defined quantities, such as solutions to nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs), that unavoidably need to be numerically approximated in order to evaluate the model. The approximation…

Computation · Statistics 2024-09-16 Juho Timonen , Nikolas Siccha , Ben Bales , Harri Lähdesmäki , Aki Vehtari

Many statistical applications involve models for which it is difficult to evaluate the likelihood, but from which it is relatively easy to sample. Approximate Bayesian computation is a likelihood-free method for implementing Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-11-29 Wentao Li , Paul Fearnhead

This paper considers the problem of computing Bayesian estimates of both states and model parameters for nonlinear state-space models. Generally, this problem does not have a tractable solution and approximations must be utilised. In this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-15 Jarrad Courts , Johannes Hendriks , Adrian Wills , Thomas Schön , Brett Ninness

Bayesian hypothesis tests leverage posterior probabilities, Bayes factors, or credible intervals to inform data-driven decision making. We propose a framework for power curve approximation with such hypothesis tests. We present a fast…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-08 Luke Hagar , Nathaniel T. Stevens

We propose a new method of histogram construction, providing a fully Bayesian approach to irregular histograms. Our procedure applies Bayesian model selection to a piecewise constant model of the underlying distribution, resulting in a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-13 Oskar Høgberg Simensen , Dennis Christensen , Nils Lid Hjort
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