Related papers: Bayesian Predictive Densities Based on Latent Info…
We propose a new model selection method, the posterior averaging information criterion, for Bayesian model assessment from a predictive perspective. The theoretical foundation is built on the Kullback-Leibler divergence to quantify the…
This paper describes a new Bayesian interpretation of a class of skew--Student $t$ distributions. We consider a hierarchical normal model with unknown covariance matrix and show that by imposing different restrictions on the parameter…
Let $X| \mu \sim N_p(\mu,v_xI)$ and $Y| \mu \sim N_p(\mu,v_yI)$ be independent p-dimensional multivariate normal vectors with common unknown mean $\mu$. Based on only observing $X=x$, we consider the problem of obtaining a predictive…
We consider the asymptotic behavior of posterior distributions if the model is misspecified. Given a prior distribution and a random sample from a distribution $P_0$, which may not be in the support of the prior, we show that the posterior…
In Bayesian statistics, the choice of prior distribution is often debatable, especially if prior knowledge is limited or data are scarce. In imprecise probability, sets of priors are used to accurately model and reflect prior knowledge.…
The application of Bayesian inference for the purpose of model selection is very popular nowadays. In this framework, models are compared through their marginal likelihoods, or their quotients, called Bayes factors. However, marginal…
In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating the density function of a Chi-squared variable on the basis of observations of another Chi-squared variable and a normal variable under the Kullback-Leibler divergence. We assume that…
We develop simple methods for constructing likelihoods and parameter priors for learning about the parameters and structure of a Bayesian network. In particular, we introduce several assumptions that permit the construction of likelihoods…
Bounded confidence opinion dynamics model the propagation of information in social networks. However in the existing literature, opinions are only viewed as abstract quantities without semantics rather than as part of a decision-making…
The assumption of group heterogeneity has become popular in panel data models. We develop a constrained Bayesian grouped estimator that exploits researchers' prior beliefs on groups in a form of pairwise constraints, indicating whether a…
When dealing with Bayesian inference the choice of the prior often remains a debatable question. Empirical Bayes methods offer a data-driven solution to this problem by estimating the prior itself from an ensemble of data. In the…
This invited paper proposes and discusses several Bayesian attempts at nonparametric and semiparametric density estimation. The main categories of these ideas are as follows: 1) Build a nonparametric prior around a given parametric model.…
This paper shows that large nonparametric classes of conditional multivariate densities can be approximated in the Kullback--Leibler distance by different specifications of finite mixtures of normal regressions in which normal means and…
An initial screening experiment may lead to ambiguous conclusions regarding the factors which are active in explaining the variation of an outcome variable: thus adding follow-up runs becomes necessary. We propose a fully Bayes objective…
We consider the problem of estimating the predictive density of future observations from a non-parametric regression model. The density estimators are evaluated under Kullback--Leibler divergence and our focus is on establishing the exact…
Bayesian inference provides a powerful tool for leveraging observational data to inform model predictions and uncertainties. However, when such data is limited, Bayesian inference may not adequately constrain uncertainty without the use of…
In this technical report, we consider conditional density estimation with a maximum likelihood approach. Under weak assumptions, we obtain a theoretical bound for a Kullback-Leibler type loss for a single model maximum likelihood estimate.…
Optimal dimensionality reduction methods are proposed for the Bayesian inference of a Gaussian linear model with additive noise in presence of overabundant data. Three different optimal projections of the observations are proposed based on…
The Bayesian measure of sample information about the parameter, known as Lindley's measure, is widely used in various problems such as developing prior distributions, models for the likelihood functions and optimal designs. The predictive…
The Bayesian predictive density has complex representation and does not belong to any finite-dimensional statistical model except for in limited situations. In this paper, we introduce its simple approximate representation employing its…