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We consider the model selection problem for a large class of time series models, including, multivariate count processes, causal processes with exogenous covariates. A procedure based on a general penalized contrast is proposed. Some…
We prove a law of large numbers and functional central limit theorem for a class of multivariate Hawkes processes with time-dependent reproduction rate. We address the difficulties induced by the use of non-convolutive Volterra processes by…
We consider a multiscale system of stochastic differential equations in which the slow component is perturbed by a small fractional Brownian motion with Hurst index $H>1/2$ and the fast component is driven by an independent Brownian motion.…
This paper is devoted to proving the small noise asymptotic behaviour, particularly large deviation principle, for multi-scale stochastic dynamical systems with fully local monotone coefficients driven by multiplicative noise. The main…
In this paper, we study the asymptotic behavior of randomly perturbed path-dependent stochastic differential equations with small parameter $\vartheta_{\varepsilon}$, when $\varepsilon \rightarrow 0$, $\vartheta_\varepsilon$ goes to $0$.…
We consider a semiclassical linear Boltzmann model with a non local collision operator. We provide sharp spectral asymptotics for the small spectrum in the low temperature regime from which we deduce the rate of return to equilibrium as…
In this paper we show that Hilbert space-valued stochastic models are robust with respect to perturbation, due to measurement or approximation errors, in the underlying volatility process. Within the class of stochastic volatility modulated…
In industrial applications it is quite common to use stochastic volatility models driven by semi-martingale Markov volatility processes. However, in order to fit exactly market volatilities, these models are usually extended by adding a…
We study the asymptotic behaviour of a class of small-noise diffusions driven by fractional Brownian motion, with random starting points. Different scalings allow for different asymptotic properties of the process (small-time and tail…
We present a rigorous study of the short maturity asymptotics for Asian options with continuous-time averaging, under the assumption that the underlying asset follows the Constant Elasticity of Variance (CEV) model. We present an analytical…
We develop moment estimators for the parameters of affine stochastic volatility models. We first address the challenge of calculating moments for the models by introducing a recursive equation for deriving closed-form expressions for…
Recent years have seen an increased level of interest in pricing equity options under a stochastic volatility model such as the Heston model. Often, simulating a Heston model is difficult, as a standard finite difference scheme may lead to…
It is well documented from various empirical studies that the volatility process of an asset price dynamics is stochastic. This phenomenon called for a new approach to describing the random evolution of volatility through time with…
We discuss the probabilistic properties of the variation based third and fourth moments of financial returns as estimators of the actual moments of the return distributions. The moment variations are defined under non-parametric assumptions…
We show that the moments of the distribution of historic stock returns are in excellent agreement with the Heston model and not with the multiplicative model, which predicts power-law tails of volatility and stock returns. We also show that…
We consider two types of non linear fast diffusion equations in R^N:(1) External drift type equation with general external potential. It is a natural extension of the harmonic potential case, which has been studied in many papers. In this…
In this paper we study the asymptotic theory for samples problem based on the functional empirical process (fep), this new method is called general samples problem. We suggest this method to develop the full theory of estimation of means,…
We extend a general result showing that the asymptotic behavior of high moments, factorial or standard, of random variables, determines the asymptotically normality, from the one dimensional to the multidimensional setting. This approach…
Financial time series exhibit two different type of non linear correlations: (i) volatility autocorrelations that have a very long range memory, on the order of years, and (ii) asymmetric return-volatility (or `leverage') correlations that…
We study stochastic volatility models in which the volatility process is a positive continuous function of a continuous Volterra stochastic process. We state some pathwise large deviation principles for the scaled log-price.