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Related papers: Error estimation in astronomy: A guide

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Estimating the generalization error (GE) of machine learning models is fundamental, with resampling methods being the most common approach. However, in non-standard settings, particularly those where observations are not independently and…

Parameter inference is essential when interpreting observational data using mathematical models. Standard inference methods for differential equation models typically rely on obtaining repeated numerical solutions of the differential…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-16 Alexander Johnston , Ruth E. Baker , Matthew J. Simpson

Stellar oscillation codes are software instruments that evaluate the normal-mode frequencies of an input stellar model. While inter-code comparisons are often used to confirm the correctness of calculations, they are not suitable for…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2025-05-29 Richard H. D. Townsend , Rianna V. Kuenzi , Jørgen Christensen-Dalsgaard

In this paper, we address the probabilistic error quantification of a general class of prediction methods. We consider a given prediction model and show how to obtain, through a sample-based approach, a probabilistic upper bound on the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-07 Victor Mirasierra , Martina Mammarella , Fabrizio Dabbene , Teodoro Alamo

Transferring information from observations of a dynamical system to estimate the fixed parameters and unobserved states of a system model can be formulated as the evaluation of a discrete time path integral in model state space. The…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2015-05-14 John C. Quinn , Henry D. I. Abarbanel

This paper considers nonparametric identification and estimation of the regression function when a covariate is mismeasured. The measurement error need not be classical. Employing the small measurement error approximation, we establish…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-03-19 Kirill S. Evdokimov , Andrei Zeleneev

Complex statistical models such as scalar-on-image regression often require strong assumptions to overcome the issue of non-identifiability. While in theory it is well understood that model assumptions can strongly influence the results,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-04 Clara Happ , Sonja Greven , Volker J. Schmid

Nested-error regression models are widely used for analyzing clustered data. For example, they are often applied to two-stage sample surveys, and in biology and econometrics. Prediction is usually the main goal of such analyses, and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Peter Hall , Tapabrata Maiti

The difference between a model forecast and actual observations is called forecast bias. This bias is due to either incomplete model assumptions and/or poorly known parameter values and initial/boundary conditions. In this paper we discuss…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2010-11-09 Sean Crowell , S. Lakshmivarahan

We present a review of data types and statistical methods often encountered in astronomy. The aim is to provide an introduction to statistical applications in astronomy for statisticians and computer scientists. We highlight the complex,…

Physics Education · Physics 2017-10-23 James P. Long , Rafael S. de Souza

Sampling is an important tool for estimating large, complex sums and integrals over high dimensional spaces. For instance, important sampling has been used as an alternative to exact methods for inference in belief networks. Ideally, we…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-18 Luis E. Ortiz , Leslie Pack Kaelbling

Astronomical polarimetry is a powerful technique that can provide physical information sometimes difficult or impossible to obtain by any other type of observation. Almost every class of binary star can benefit from polarimetric…

Astrophysics · Physics 2007-05-23 N. Manset

A new type of robust estimation problem is introduced where the goal is to recover a statistical model that has been corrupted after it has been estimated from data. Methods are proposed for "repairing" the model using only the design and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-21 Chao Gao , John Lafferty

We consider the problem of parameter estimation for a class of continuous-time state space models. In particular, we explore the case of a partially observed diffusion, with data also arriving according to a diffusion process. Based upon a…

Computation · Statistics 2021-03-16 Alexandros Beskos , Dan Crisan , Ajay Jasra , Nikolas Kantas , Hamza Ruzayqat

Optimal error estimation is key to achieve accurate photometry and astrometry. Stellar fluxes and positions in high angular resolution images are typically measured with PSF fitting routines, such as StarFinder. However, the formal…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2022-08-12 E. Gallego-Cano , R. Schödel , A. T. Gallego-Calvente , A. M. Ghez

Many automated system analysis techniques (e.g., model checking, model-based testing) rely on first obtaining a model of the system under analysis. System modeling is often done manually, which is often considered as a hindrance to adopt…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2019-11-22 Jingyi Wang , Jun Sun , Qixia Yuan , Jun Pang

Throughout the life sciences we routinely seek to interpret measurements and observations using parameterised mechanistic mathematical models. A fundamental and often overlooked choice in this approach involves relating the solution of a…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2023-11-10 Ryan J. Murphy , Oliver J. Maclaren , Matthew J. Simpson

We develop estimation and inference methods for a stylized macroeconomic model with potentially multiple behavioural equilibria, where agents form expectations using a constant-gain learning rule. We first show geometric ergodicity of the…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-10 Alexander Mayer , Davide Raggi

Estimation of time delays from a noisy and gapped data is one of the simplest data analysis problems in astronomy by its formulation. But as history of real experiments show, the work with observed data sets can be quite complex and…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2011-05-31 A. Hirv , N. Olspert , J. Pelt

Missing data is an important challenge when dealing with high dimensional data arranged in the form of an array. In this paper, we propose methods for estimation of the parameters of array variate normal probability model from partially…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-01-06 Deniz Akdemir