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We consider the problem of finding the transition rates of a continuous-time homogeneous Markov chain under the empirical condition that the state changes at most once during a time interval of unit length. It is proven that this…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-06-01 Philippe Carette , Marie-Anne Guerry

Characterizing whether a Markov process of discrete random variables has an homogeneous continuous-time realization is a hard problem. In practice, this problem reduces to deciding when a given Markov matrix can be written as the…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-23 Marta Casanellas , Jesús Fernández-Sánchez , Jordi Roca-Lacostena

The embedding problem of Markov matrices in Markov semigroups is a classic problem that regained a lot of impetus and activities through recent needs in phylogeny and population genetics. Here, we give an account for dimensions $d\leqslant…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-07-04 Michael Baake , Jeremy Sumner

The classical embeddability problem asks whether a given stochastic matrix $T$, describing transition probabilities of a $d$-level system, can arise from the underlying homogeneous continuous-time Markov process. Here, we investigate the…

We present an approach for testing for the existence of continuous generators of discrete stochastic transition matrices. Typically, the known approaches to ascertain the existence of continuous Markov processes are based in the assumption…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2016-03-23 Pedro Lencastre , Frank Raischel , Tim Rogers , Pedro G. Lind

Markov matrices of equal-input type constitute a widely used model class. The corresponding equal-input generators span an interesting subalgebra of the real matrices with zero row sums. Here, we summarise some of their amazing properties…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-04-16 Michael Baake , Jeremy Sumner

The embedding problem for Markov chains is a famous problem in probability theory and only partial results are available up till now. In this paper, we propose a variant of the embedding problem called the reversible embedding problem which…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-05-12 Chen Jia

We study model embeddability, which is a variation of the famous embedding problem in probability theory, when apart from the requirement that the Markov matrix is the matrix exponential of a rate matrix, we additionally ask that the rate…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-04-02 Muhammad Ardiyansyah , Dimitra Kosta , Kaie Kubjas

The embeddability of reversible Markov matrices into time-homogeneous Markov semigroups is revisited, with some focus on simplifications and extensions. In particular, we do not demand irreducibility and consider weakly reversible matrices…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-01 Ellen Baake , Michael Baake , Jeremy Sumner

We consider the problem of characterising expected hitting times and hitting probabilities for imprecise Markov chains. To this end, we consider three distinct ways in which imprecise Markov chains have been defined in the literature: as…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-01-28 Thomas Krak , Natan T'Joens , Jasper De Bock

This paper explicitly details the relation between $M$-matrices, nonnegative roots of nonnegative matrices, and the embedding problem for finite-state stationary Markov chains. The set of nonsingular nonnegative matrices with arbitrary…

Functional Analysis · Mathematics 2022-11-29 Alexander Van-Brunt

Time-homogeneous Markov chains are often used as disease progression models in studies of cost-effectiveness and optimal decision-making. Maximum likelihood estimation of these models can be challenging when data are collected at a time…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-26 Duncan Ermini Leaf

In the paper, we study a new rate of convergence estimate for homogeneous discrete-time nonlinear Markov chains based on the Markov-Dobrushin condition. This result generalizes the convergence estimates for any positive number of transition…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-10-22 Aleksandr A. Shchegolev

In the hidden Markov process, there is a possibility that two different transition matrices for hidden and observed variables yield the same stochastic behavior for the observed variables. Since such two transition matrices cannot be…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-09-10 Masahito Hayashi

The study of time-inhomogeneous Markov jump processes is a traditional topic within probability theory that has recently attracted substantial attention in various applications. However, their flexibility also incurs a substantial…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-11-03 Martin Bladt , Oscar Peralta

We address a class of Markov jump linear systems that are characterized by the underlying Markov process being time-inhomogeneous with a priori unknown transition probabilities. Necessary and sufficient conditions for uniform stochastic…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2014-11-24 Collin C. Lutz , Daniel J. Stilwell

Time homogeneous polynomial processes are Markov processes whose moments can be calculated easily through matrix exponentials. In this work, we develop a notion of time inhomogeneous polynomial processes where the coeffiecients of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-06-12 María Fernanda del Carmen Agoitia Hurtado , Thorsten Schmidt

Inferring the infinitesimal rates of continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) is a central challenge in many scientific domains. This task is hindered by three factors: quadratic growth in the number of rates as the CTMC state space expands,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-09 Filippo Monti , Xiang Ji , Marc A. Suchard

We study irreducible time-homogenous Markov chains with finite state space in discrete time. We obtain results on the sensitivity of the stationary distribution and other statistical quantities with respect to perturbations of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Eilon Solan , Nicolas Vieille

We introduce a simple approach for testing the reliability of homogeneous generators and the Markov property of the stochastic processes underlying empirical time series of credit ratings. We analyze open access data provided by Moody's and…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2014-10-30 Pedro Lencastre , Frank Raischel , Pedro G. Lind , Tim Rogers
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