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Automated Market Makers (AMMs) are used to provide liquidity for combinatorial prediction markets that would otherwise be too thinly traded. They offer both buy and sell prices for any of the doubly exponential many possible securities that…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2025-10-16 Maneesha Papireddygari , Xintong Wang , Bo Waggoner , David M. Pennock

Two popular forms of automated market makers are constant sum and constant product (CSMM and CPMM respectively). Each has its advantages and disadvantages: CSMMs have stable exchange rates but are vulnerable to arbitrage and can sometimes…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2022-04-07 Alexander Port , Neelesh Tiruviluamala

This paper introduces a new representation for the actions of a market maker in an order-driven market. This representation uses scaled beta distributions, and generalises three approaches taken in the artificial intelligence for market…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2022-09-28 Joseph Jerome , Gregory Palmer , Rahul Savani

Prediction markets rely on liquidity to convert trades into informative prices, yet existing mechanisms fix liquidity ex ante. This restriction enforces a static trade-off between price responsiveness and worst-case loss despite inherently…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Enrique Nueve , Bao Nguyen , Rafael Frongillo , Bo Waggoner

Interference between treated and untreated units is a source of bias in marketplace experiments. In this paper, we specifically consider pricing interventions, in which a platform seeks to adjust base pricing levels at the marketplace level…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-02-27 Arthur Delarue , Kleanthis Karakolios

The intermittent nature of renewable energy resources creates extra challenges in the operation and control of the electricity grid. Demand flexibility markets can help in dealing with these challenges by introducing incentives for…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2021-06-29 Khaled Abedrabboh , Luluwah Al-Fagih

The ability of large language models (LLMs) to manage and acquire economic resources remains unclear. In this paper, we introduce \textbf{Market-Bench}, a comprehensive benchmark that evaluates the capabilities of LLMs in…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Yushuo Zheng , Huiyu Duan , Zicheng Zhang , Yucheng Zhu , Xiongkuo Min , Guangtao Zhai

We develop an analytical framework to study experimental design in two-sided marketplaces. Many of these experiments exhibit interference, where an intervention applied to one market participant influences the behavior of another…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-28 Ramesh Johari , Hannah Li , Inessa Liskovich , Gabriel Weintraub

We consider the market microstructure of automated market makers (AMMs) from the perspective of liquidity providers (LPs). Our central contribution is a ``Black-Scholes formula for AMMs''. We identify the main adverse selection cost…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-05-29 Jason Milionis , Ciamac C. Moallemi , Tim Roughgarden , Anthony Lee Zhang

Prior work has investigated variations of prediction markets that preserve participants' (differential) privacy, which formed the basis of useful mechanisms for purchasing data for machine learning objectives. Such markets required…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2018-10-30 Rafael Frongillo , Bo Waggoner

Market making is one of the most important aspects of algorithmic trading, and it has been studied quite extensively from a theoretical point of view. The practical implementation of so-called "optimal strategies" however suffers from the…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2018-06-14 Xiaofei Lu , Frédéric Abergel

As the amount of economic and other data generated worldwide increases vastly, a challenge for future generations of econometricians will be to master efficient algorithms for inference in empirical models with large information sets. This…

Computation · Statistics 2020-04-27 Dimitris Korobilis , Davide Pettenuzzo

Prediction markets aggregate agents' beliefs regarding a future event, where each agent is paid based on the accuracy of its reported belief when compared to the realized outcome. Agents may strategically manipulate the market (e.g., delay…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2012-12-27 Ayman Ghoneim , Robert C. Williamson

We study the trading activity of designated market makers (DMMs) in electronic markets using a unique dataset with audit-trail information on trader classification. DMMs may either adhere to their market-making agreements and offer…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-03 Mario Bellia , Kim Christensen , Aleksey Kolokolov , Loriana Pelizzon , Roberto Renò

The prediction of financial markets is a challenging yet important task. In modern electronically-driven markets, traditional time-series econometric methods often appear incapable of capturing the true complexity of the multi-level…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-02-01 Martin Magris , Mostafa Shabani , Alexandros Iosifidis

Empirical evidence suggests that even the most competitive markets are not strictly efficient. Price histories can be used to predict near future returns with a probability better than random chance. Many markets can be considered as {\it…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 Yi-Cheng Zhang

We look at discovering the impact of market microstructure on equitability for market participants at public exchanges such as the New York Stock Exchange or NASDAQ. Are these environments equitable venues for low-frequency participants…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2021-11-02 Kshama Dwarakanath , Svitlana S Vyetrenko , Tucker Balch

Market makers provide liquidity to other market participants: they propose prices at which they stand ready to buy and sell a wide variety of assets. They face a complex optimization problem with both static and dynamic components. They…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2017-05-09 Olivier Guéant

Constant-function market makers (CFMMs), such as Uniswap, are automated exchanges offering trades among a set of assets. We study their technical relationship to another class of automated market makers, cost-function prediction markets. We…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2023-04-10 Rafael Frongillo , Maneesha Papireddygari , Bo Waggoner

Market making (MM) has attracted significant attention in financial trading owing to its essential function in ensuring market liquidity. With strong capabilities in sequential decision-making, Reinforcement Learning (RL) technology has…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-21 Hui Niu , Siyuan Li , Jiahao Zheng , Zhouchi Lin , Jian Li , Jian Guo , Bo An