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Deep probabilistic forecasting is gaining attention in numerous applications ranging from weather prognosis, through electricity consumption estimation, to autonomous vehicle trajectory prediction. However, existing approaches focus on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-04 Jedrzej Kozerawski , Mayank Sharan , Rose Yu

We consider general stochastic systems of interacting particles with noise which are relevant as models for the collective behavior of animals, and rigorously prove that in the mean-field limit the system is close to the solution of a…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-01-12 François Bolley , José Alfredo Cañizo , José Antonio Carrillo

Let $X$ be the number of $k$-term arithmetic progressions contained in the $p$-biased random subset of the first $N$ positive integers. We give asymptotically sharp estimates on the logarithmic upper-tail probability $\log \Pr(X \ge E[X] +…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-09-16 Matan Harel , Frank Mousset , Wojciech Samotij

This article investigates the asymptotic distribution of penalized estimators with non-differentiable penalties designed to recover low-dimensional pattern structures. Patterns play a central role in estimation, as they reveal the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-18 Ivan Hejný , Jonas Wallin , Małgorzata Bogdan

Most of lipschitz regularity results for nonlinear strictly elliptic equations are obtained for a suitable growth power of the nonlinearity with respect to the gradient variable (subquadratic for instance). For equations with superquadratic…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2016-07-14 Olivier Ley , Vinh Duc Nguyen

This paper introduces a flexible framework for the estimation of the conditional tail index of heavy tailed distributions. In this framework, the tail index is computed from an auxiliary linear regression model that facilitates estimation…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-09-23 João Nicolau , Paulo M. M. Rodrigues

This paper considers stochastic weakly convex optimization without the standard Lipschitz continuity assumption. Based on new adaptive regularization (stepsize) strategies, we show that a wide class of stochastic algorithms, including the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-11-07 Wenzhi Gao , Qi Deng

We study the performance of the Least Squares Estimator (LSE) in a general nonparametric regression model, when the errors are independent of the covariates but may only have a $p$-th moment ($p\geq 1$). In such a heavy-tailed regression…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-07-17 Qiyang Han , Jon A. Wellner

In this paper we study the asymptotics of linear regression in settings with non-Gaussian covariates where the covariates exhibit a linear dependency structure, departing from the standard assumption of independence. We model the covariates…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-10 Behrad Moniri , Hamed Hassani

Randomized smoothing is a widely adopted technique for optimizing nonsmooth objective functions. However, its efficiency analysis typically relies on global Lipschitz continuity, a condition rarely met in practical applications. To address…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-09-10 Jingfan Xia , Zhenwei Lin , Qi Deng

The Lipschitz constant of a response surface function upper bounds the sensitivity of a dependent variable to changes in the independent ones. Traditionally, such constants have found much implicit and abstract use in mathematically…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-01-17 Gene A. Bunin , Grégory François

A continuous-time regression model with a jointly strictly sub-Gaussian random noise is considered in the paper. Upper exponential bounds for probabilities of large deviations of the least squares estimator for the regression parameter are…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-06-12 Alexander V. Ivanov , Igor V. Orlovskyi

Longitudinal analysis is important in many disciplines, such as the study of behavioral transitions in social science. Only very recently, feature selection has drawn adequate attention in the context of longitudinal modeling. Standard…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-26 Tingyang Xu , Jiangwen Sun , Jinbo Bi

We review recent results for high-dimensional sparse linear regression in the practical case of unknown variance. Different sparsity settings are covered, including coordinate-sparsity, group-sparsity and variation-sparsity. The emphasis is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-02-22 Christophe Giraud , Sylvie Huet , Nicolas Verzelen

In regression problems where covariates can be naturally grouped, the group Lasso is an attractive method for variable selection since it respects the grouping structure in the data. We study the selection and estimation properties of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-11-30 Fengrong Wei , Jian Huang

We characterise the learning of a mixture of two clouds of data points with generic centroids via empirical risk minimisation in the high dimensional regime, under the assumptions of generic convex loss and convex regularisation. Each cloud…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-19 Urte Adomaityte , Gabriele Sicuro , Pierpaolo Vivo

Non-Hermitean operators may appear during the calculation of a partition function in various models of statistical mechanics. The tail eigen-states, having anomalously small real part of energy $Re(\eps)$, became naturally important in this…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 P. G. Silvestrov

In this work, we provide robust bounds on the tail probabilities and the tail index of heavy-tailed distributions in the context of model misspecification. They are defined as the optimal value when computing the worst-case tail behavior…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-14 Corina Birghila , Maximilian Aigner , Sebastian Engelke

We study the random variables (r.v.) with values in the so-called mixed (anisotropic) Lebesgue-Riesz spaces: formulate the sufficient conditions for belonging of the r.v. to these spaces, estimate the tail of norms distribution, especially…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-10-08 M. R. Formica , E. Ostrovsky , L. Sirota

Likelihood-based procedures are a common way to estimate tail dependence parameters. They are not applicable, however, in non-differentiable models such as those arising from recent max-linear structural equation models. Moreover, they can…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-01-20 John H. J. Einmahl , Anna Kiriliouk , Johan Segers