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Related papers: Optimal Uncertainty Quantification

200 papers

In recent years, large language models (LLMs) have become increasingly prevalent, offering remarkable text generation capabilities. However, a pressing challenge is their tendency to make confidently wrong predictions, highlighting the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-06 Xiang Gao , Jiaxin Zhang , Lalla Mouatadid , Kamalika Das

Uncertainty quantification has been a core of the statistical machine learning, but its computational bottleneck has been a serious challenge for both Bayesians and frequentists. We propose a model-based framework in quantifying…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-04 Minsuk Shin , Young Lee , Jun S. Liu

Climate models are generally calibrated manually by comparing selected climate statistics, such as the global top-of-atmosphere energy balance, to observations. The manual tuning only targets a limited subset of observational data and…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-04-06 Michael F. Howland , Oliver R. A. Dunbar , Tapio Schneider

This paper explores Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in SVM predictions, particularly for regression and forecasting tasks. Unlike the Neural Network, the SVM solutions are typically more stable, sparse, optimal and interpretable. However,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-22 Pritam Anand

We propose a novel framework for uncertainty quantification via information bottleneck (IB-UQ) for scientific machine learning tasks, including deep neural network (DNN) regression and neural operator learning (DeepONet). Specifically, we…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-05-31 Ling Guo , Hao Wu , Wenwen Zhou , Yan Wang , Tao Zhou

Recent investigations have emphasized the importance of uncertainty quantification (UQ) to describe errors in nuclear theory. We carry out UQ for configuration-interaction shell model calculations in the $1s$-$0d$ valence space,…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2020-05-20 Jordan M. R. Fox , Calvin W. Johnson , Rodrigo Navarro Perez

Conformal prediction (CP), a distribution-free uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework, reliably provides valid predictive inference for black-box models. CP constructs prediction sets that contain the true output with a specified…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-12 Xiaofan Zhou , Baiting Chen , Yu Gui , Lu Cheng

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is crucial for deploying machine learning models in high-stakes applications, where overconfident predictions can lead to serious consequences. An effective UQ method must balance computational efficiency…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-23 Taeseong Yoon , Heeyoung Kim

The role of uncertainty quantification (UQ) in deep learning has become crucial with growing use of predictive models in high-risk applications. Though a large class of methods exists for measuring deep uncertainties, in practice, the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-01 Bindya Venkatesh , Jayaraman J. Thiagarajan

Atomistic simulations are an important tool in materials modeling. Interatomic potentials (IPs) are at the heart of such molecular models, and the accuracy of a model's predictions depends strongly on the choice of IP. Uncertainty…

This study aims to comprehensively investigate the deep ensemble approach, an approximate Bayesian inference, in the multi-output regression task for predicting the aerodynamic performance of a missile configuration. To this end, the effect…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-27 Sunwoong Yang , Kwanjung Yee

Uncertainty quantification for inverse problems in imaging has drawn much attention lately. Existing approaches towards this task define uncertainty regions based on probable values per pixel, while ignoring spatial correlations within the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-01-23 Omer Belhasin , Yaniv Romano , Daniel Freedman , Ehud Rivlin , Michael Elad

This paper presents a groundbreaking self-improving interference management framework tailored for wireless communications, integrating deep learning with uncertainty quantification to enhance overall system performance. Our approach…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-25 Hyun-Suk Lee , Do-Yup Kim , Kyungsik Min

With the increased prevalence of neural operators being used to provide rapid solutions to partial differential equations (PDEs), understanding the accuracy of model predictions and the associated error levels is necessary for deploying…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-26 Nick Winovich , Mitchell Daneker , Lu Lu , Guang Lin

First principles approaches have revolutionized our ability in using computers to predict, explore and design materials. A major advantage commonly associated with these approaches is that they are fully parameter free. However, numerically…

Materials Science · Physics 2025-12-25 Jan Janssen , Edgar Makarov , Tilmann Hickel , Alexander V. Shapeev , Jörg Neugebauer

Applications, ranging from tracking molecular motion within cells to analyzing complex animal foraging behavior, require algorithms for associating a collection of spot-like particles in one image with particles contained in another image.…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2013-04-23 Alexander Mont , Aubrey V. Wiegel , Diego Krapf , Christopher P. Calderon

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is important to machine learning (ML) force fields to assess the level of confidence during prediction, as ML models are not inherently physical and can therefore yield catastrophically incorrect predictions.…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2022-11-22 Yuge Hu , Joseph Musielewicz , Zachary Ulissi , Andrew J. Medford

AI predictive systems are increasingly embedded in decision making pipelines, shaping high stakes choices once made solely by humans. Yet robust decisions under uncertainty still rely on capabilities that current AI lacks: domain knowledge…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Sima Noorani , Shayan Kiyani , George Pappas , Hamed Hassani

Entropic uncertainty relations play a fundamental role in quantum information theory. However, determining optimal (tight) entropic uncertainty relations for general observables remains a formidable challenge and has so far been achieved…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-02-03 Ma-Cheng Yang , Cong-Feng Qiao

This paper presents a novel optimization framework of formulating the three-phase optimal power flow that involves uncertainty. The proposed uncertainty-aware optimization (UaO) framework is: 1) a deterministic framework that is less…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-01-21 Qifeng Li