Related papers: Rate estimation in partially observed Markov jump …
In this paper we consider Bayesian parameter inference associated to a class of partially observed stochastic differential equations (SDE) driven by jump processes. Such type of models can be routinely found in applications, of which we…
In this paper, we focus on the statistical filtering problem in dynamical models with jumps. When a particular application relies on physical properties which are modeled by linear and Gaussian probability density functions with jumps, an…
Optimal designs minimize the number of experimental runs (samples) needed to accurately estimate model parameters, resulting in algorithms that, for instance, efficiently minimize parameter estimate variance. Governed by knowledge of past…
We present a new method for simulating Markovian jump processes with time-dependent transitions rates, which avoids the transformation of random numbers by inverting time integrals over the rates. It relies on constructing a sequence of…
In the context of nonparametric Bayesian estimation a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is devised and implemented to sample from the posterior distribution of the drift function of a continuously or discretely observed one-dimensional…
A piecewise-deterministic Markov process is a stochastic process whose behavior is governed by an ordinary differential equation punctuated by random jumps occurring at random times. We focus on the nonparametric estimation problem of the…
We investigate the Poisson regression method for Markov and semi-Markov jump processes from a nonparametric angle, allowing the lengths of the time and duration intervals in the partition to vary with the number of observations. Imposing no…
Piecewise-deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs) offer a powerful stochastic modeling framework that combines deterministic trajectories with random perturbations at random times. Estimating their local characteristics (particularly the…
Stochastic kinetic models (SKMs) are increasingly used to account for the inherent stochasticity exhibited by interacting populations of species in areas such as epidemiology, population ecology and systems biology. Species numbers are…
Advances in sampling schemes for Markov jump processes have recently enabled multiple inferential tasks. However, in statistical and machine learning applications, we often require that these continuous-time models find support on…
Markov chains are fundamental models for stochastic dynamics, with applications in a wide range of areas such as population dynamics, queueing systems, reinforcement learning, and Monte Carlo methods. Estimating the transition matrix and…
We numerically investigate a mean-field Bayesian approach with the assistance of the Markov chain Monte Carlo method to estimate motion velocity fields and probabilistic models simultaneously in consecutive digital images described by…
We develop a new bidirectional algorithm for estimating Markov chain multi-step transition probabilities: given a Markov chain, we want to estimate the probability of hitting a given target state in $\ell$ steps after starting from a given…
In most sampling algorithms, including Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, transition rates between states correspond to the probability of making a transition in a single time step, and are constrained to be less than or equal to 1. We derive a…
In this paper, we consider a piecewise deterministic Markov process (PDMP), with known flow and deterministic transition measure, and unknown jump rate $\lambda$. To estimate nonparametrically the jump rate, we first construct an adaptive…
Fitting stochastic kinetic models represented by Markov jump processes within the Bayesian paradigm is complicated by the intractability of the observed data likelihood. There has therefore been considerable attention given to the design of…
Markov jump processes and continuous time Bayesian networks are important classes of continuous time dynamical systems. In this paper, we tackle the problem of inferring unobserved paths in these models by introducing a fast auxiliary…
Jump stochastic volatility models are central to financial econometrics for volatility forecasting, portfolio risk management, and derivatives pricing. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are computationally unfeasible for the…
We describe stochastic calculus in the context of processes that are driven by an adapted point process of locally finite intensity and are differentiable between jumps. This includes Markov chains as well as non-Markov processes. By…
In this article we consider Bayesian estimation of static parameters for a class of partially observed McKean-Vlasov diffusion processes with discrete-time observations over a fixed time interval. This problem features several obstacles to…