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Specifying a Bayesian prior is notoriously difficult for complex models such as neural networks. Reasoning about parameters is made challenging by the high-dimensionality and over-parameterization of the space. Priors that seem benign and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-22 Eric Nalisnick , Jonathan Gordon , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

We derive the Jeffreys prior for the parameter of the Multivariate Ewens Distribution and study some of its properties. In particular, we show that this prior is proper and has no finite moments. We also investigate the impact of this…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-09-11 Abel Rodriguez

Researchers and managers model ecological communities to infer the biotic and abiotic variables that shape species' ranges, habitat use, and co-occurrence which, in turn, are used to support management decisions and test ecological…

Applications · Statistics 2020-06-01 Trevor Hefley

We study prior distributions for Poisson parameter estimation under $L^1$ loss. Specifically, we construct a new family of prior distributions whose optimal Bayesian estimators (the conditional medians) can be any prescribed increasing…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-28 Leighton P. Barnes , Alex Dytso , H. Vincent Poor

In this paper we consider the problem of estimating a parameter of a probability distribution when we have some prior information on a nuisance parameter. We start by the very simple case where we know perfectly the value of the nuisance…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-08-23 Ali Mohammad-Djafari , Adel Mohammadpour

To include parameter uncertainty into probabilistic climate forecasts one must first specify a prior. We advocate the use of objective priors, and, in particular, the Jeffreys' Prior. In previous work we have derived expressions for the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2010-05-14 Stephen Jewson , Dan Rowlands , Myles Allen

Bayesian model comparison requires the specification of a prior distribution on the parameter space of each candidate model. In this connection two concerns arise: on the one hand the elicitation task rapidly becomes prohibitive as the…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-02-16 Guido Consonni , Piero Veronese

Objective prior distributions represent an important tool that allows one to have the advantages of using the Bayesian framework even when information about the parameters of a model is not available. The usual objective approaches work off…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-25 Fabrizio Leisen , Cristiano Villa , Stephen G. Walker

In Bayesian statistics, the choice of prior distribution is often debatable, especially if prior knowledge is limited or data are scarce. In imprecise probability, sets of priors are used to accurately model and reflect prior knowledge.…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-25 Gero Walter , Frank P. A. Coolen

We use the language of uninformative Bayesian prior choice to study the selection of appropriately simple effective models. We advocate for the prior which maximizes the mutual information between parameters and predictions, learning as…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2018-02-16 Henry H. Mattingly , Mark K. Transtrum , Michael C. Abbott , Benjamin B. Machta

The prior distribution on parameters of a sampling distribution is the usual starting point for Bayesian uncertainty quantification. In this paper, we present a different perspective which focuses on missing observations as the source of…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-23 Edwin Fong , Chris Holmes , Stephen G. Walker

When complex Bayesian models exhibit implausible behaviour, one solution is to assemble available information into an informative prior. Challenges arise as prior information is often only available for the observable quantity, or some…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-18 Andrew A. Manderson , Robert J. B. Goudie

Estimating the difference between two binomial proportions will be investigated, where Bayesian, frequentist and fiducial (BFF) methods will be considered. Three vague priors will be used, the Jeffreys prior, a divergence prior and the…

Applications · Statistics 2021-11-17 Lizanne Raubenheimer

We develop simple methods for constructing likelihoods and parameter priors for learning about the parameters and structure of a Bayesian network. In particular, we introduce several assumptions that permit the construction of likelihoods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-01 David Heckerman , Dan Geiger

The advances in variational inference are providing promising paths in Bayesian estimation problems. These advances make variational phylogenetic inference an alternative approach to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for approximating the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-09-12 Amine M. Remita , Golrokh Vitae , Abdoulaye Baniré Diallo

Study of the bivariate normal distribution raises the full range of issues involving objective Bayesian inference, including the different types of objective priors (e.g., Jeffreys, invariant, reference, matching), the different modes of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 James O. Berger , Dongchu Sun

Eliciting informative prior distributions for Bayesian inference can often be complex and challenging. While popular methods rely on asking experts probability based questions to quantify uncertainty, these methods are not without their…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-11 Julia R. Falconer , Eibe Frank , Devon L. L. Polaschek , Chaitanya Joshi

In many statistical applications that concern mathematical psychologists, the concept of Fisher information plays an important role. In this tutorial we clarify the concept of Fisher information as it manifests itself across three different…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-18 Alexander Ly , Maarten Marsman , Josine Verhagen , Raoul Grasman , Eric-Jan Wagenmakers

In Bayesian analysis, reference priors are widely recognized for their objective nature. Yet, they often lead to intractable and improper priors, which complicates their application. Besides, informed prior elicitation methods are penalized…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-23 Antoine Van Biesbroeck

While Jeffreys priors usually are well-defined for the parameters of mixtures of distributions, they are not available in closed form. Furthermore, they often are improper priors. Hence, they have never been used to draw inference on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-12-22 Clara Grazian , Christian Robert