Related papers: Climate tipping as a noisy bifurcation: a predicti…
Computer-generated forecasts divide the earth's surface into gridboxes, each now ~25% of the size of London, and predict one value per gridbox. If weather varies markedly within a gridbox forecasts for specific sites inevitably fail. A…
Numerical climate models are used to project future climate change due to both anthropogenic and natural causes. Differences between projections from different climate models are a major source of uncertainty about future climate. Emergent…
Vital parts of the climate system, such as the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, are at risk even within the aspired aims of the Paris Agreement to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 -- 2{\deg}C. These so-called natural tipping elements are…
Reduced precision floating point arithmetic is now routinely deployed in numerical weather forecasting over short timescales. However the applicability of these reduced precision techniques to longer timescale climate simulations -…
In this article, we review the interdisciplinary techniques (borrowed from physics, mathematics, statistics, machine-learning, etc.) and methodological framework that we have used to understand climate systems, which serve as examples of…
Decadal temperature prediction provides crucial information for quantifying the expected effects of future climate changes and thus informs strategic planning and decision-making in various domains. However, such long-term predictions are…
A wide variety of physical systems ranging from the firing of neurons to eutrophication of lakes to the presence of Arctic summer sea ice exhibit a phenomenon known as tipping. In mathematical models, tipping can be caused by bifurcations,…
Tipping behavior can occur when an equilibrium of a dynamical system loses stability in response to a slowly varying parameter crossing a bifurcation threshold, or where noise drives a system from one attractor to another, or some…
Global climate models represent small-scale processes such as clouds and convection using quasi-empirical models known as parameterizations, and these parameterizations are a leading cause of uncertainty in climate projections. A promising…
Stochastic methods are a crucial area in contemporary climate research and are increasingly being used in comprehensive weather and climate prediction models as well as reduced order climate models. Stochastic methods are used as…
The state of earth's climate is constrained by well-known physical principles such as energy balance and the conservation of energy. Increased greenhouse gas concentrations affect the atmospheric optical depth, and physical consistency…
Phenological timing -- i.e. the course of annually recurring development stages in nature -- is of particular interest since it can be understood as a proxy for the climate at a specific region; moreover changes in the so called…
The climate record preserved in polar glaciers, mountain glaciers, and widespread cave deposits shows repeated occurrence of abrupt global transitions between cold/dry stadial and warm/wet interstadial states during glacial periods. These…
Paleoclimate records provide a critical long-term perspective on natural climate variability, essential for understanding contemporary climate change. However, existing paleoclimate proxies lack the spatial-temporal coverage for studying…
Multistability is a ubiquitous feature in systems of geophysical relevance and provides key challenges for our ability to predict a system's response to perturbations. Near critical transitions small causes can lead to large effects and -…
In this paper we discuss and address the challenges of predicting extreme atmospheric events like intense rainfall, hail, and strong winds. These events can cause significant damage and have become more frequent due to climate change.…
Earth's energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere is a key climate system metric, but its natural variability is poorly constrained by the short observational record and large uncertainty in coupled climate models. While existing ocean…
Global warming leads to the increase in frequency and intensity of climate extremes that cause tremendous loss of lives and property. Accurate long-range climate prediction allows more time for preparation and disaster risk management for…
Complex systems exhibiting critical transitions when one of their governing parameters varies are ubiquitous in nature and in engineering applications. Despite a vast literature focusing on this topic, there are few studies dealing with the…
The effect caused by the presence of a number of distinct time scales in a simple stochastic model for the Earth's atmosphere temperature fluctuations is studied. The model is described by a dissipative dynamics consisting of a set of…