Related papers: Climate tipping as a noisy bifurcation: a predicti…
Using observational data and an elementary rigorous statistical fact it is easily shown that the distribution of Earth's climate is non-stationary. Examination of records of hundreds of local Industrial Era temperature histories in the…
Models of complex dynamical systems like the Earth's climate often involve large numbers of uncertain parameters. Comprehensive exploration of the parameter space is typically prohibitive due to excessive computational costs. Systematic…
A climate state close to a tipping point will have a degenerate linear response to perturbations, which can be associated with extreme values of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). In this paper we contrast linearized…
The climate variability associated with the Pleistocene Ice Ages is one of the most fascinating puzzles in the Earth Sciences still awaiting a satisfactory explanation. In particular, the explanation of the dominant 100 kyr period of the…
Critical transitions, ubiquitous in nature and technology, necessitate anticipation to avert adverse outcomes. While many studies focus on bifurcation-induced tipping, where a control parameter change leads to destabilization, alternative…
Sudden and abrupt changes can occur in a nonlinear system within many fields of science when such a system crosses a tipping point and rapid changes of the system occur in response to slow changes in an external forcing. These can occur…
Atmospheric models used for weather and climate prediction are traditionally formulated in a deterministic manner. In other words, given a particular state of the resolved scale variables, the most likely forcing from the sub-grid scale…
We study the mitigation of climate tipping point transitions using an energy balance model. The evolution of the global mean surface temperature is coupled with the CO2 concentration through the green house effect. We model the CO2…
Tipping points occur in diverse systems in various disciplines such as ecology, climate science, economy or engineering. Tipping points are critical thresholds in system parameters or state variables at which a tiny perturbation can lead to…
The current configuration of the ocean overturning involves upwelling predominantly in the Southern Ocean and sinking predominantly in the Atlantic basin. The reasons for this remain unclear, as both models and paleoclimatic observations…
Key components of the Earth system can undergo abrupt and potentially irreversible transitions when the magnitude or rate of external forcing exceeds critical thresholds. In this study, we use the example of the Atlantic Meridional…
Climate changepoint (homogenization) methods abound today, with a myriad of techniques existing in both the climate and statistics literature. Unfortunately, the appropriate changepoint technique to use remains unclear to many. Further…
Bifurcations can cause dynamical systems with slowly varying parameters to transition to far-away attractors. The terms ``critical transition'' or ``tipping point'' have been used to describe this situation. Critical transitions have been…
Climate exhibits a vast range of dissipative structures. Some have characteristic times of a few days; others evolve on thousands of years. All these structures are interdependent; in other words, they communicate. It is often considered…
Rate-induced tipping is an instability that occurs in a system when its time-dependent rate parameter becomes larger than a threshold value. We investigate a Pearson diffusion process, a diffusion process having solutions staying in a…
Modern weather and climate models share a common heritage, and often even components, however they are used in different ways to answer fundamentally different questions. As such, attempts to emulate them using machine learning should…
A generic saddle-node bifurcation is proposed to modelize fast transitions of finite amplitude arising in geophysical (and perhaps other) contexts, when they result from the intrinsic dynamics of the system. The fast transition is…
The behavior of a stationary inverted point mass pendulum pivoted at its lower end in a gravitational potential is studied under the influence of statistical fluctuations. It is shown using purely classical equations that the pendulum…
The atmosphere is chaotic. This fundamental property of the climate system makes forecasting weather incredibly challenging: it's impossible to expect weather models to ever provide perfect predictions of the Earth system beyond timescales…
Tipping elements in the climate system are large-scale subregions of the Earth that might possess threshold behavior under global warming with large potential impacts on human societies. Here, we study a subset of five tipping elements and…