Related papers: Multipoint Schur algorithm, II: generalized moment…
A multi-output Gaussian process (GP) is introduced as a model for the joint posterior distribution of the local predictive ability of set of models and/or experts, conditional on a vector of covariates, from historical predictions in the…
Gaussian processes are probabilistic models that are commonly used as functional priors in machine learning. Due to their probabilistic nature, they can be used to capture the prior information on the statistics of noise, smoothness of the…
Gaussian processes are arguably the most important class of spatiotemporal models within machine learning. They encode prior information about the modeled function and can be used for exact or approximate Bayesian learning. In many…
Increasingly larger data sets of processes in space and time ask for statistical models and methods that can cope with such data. We show that the solution of a stochastic advection-diffusion partial differential equation provides a…
This work leverages recent advances in probabilistic machine learning to discover conservation laws expressed by parametric linear equations. Such equations involve, but are not limited to, ordinary and partial differential,…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are ubiquitous tools for modeling and predicting continuous processes in physical and engineering sciences. This is partly due to the fact that one may employ a Gaussian process as an interpolator while facilitating…
The accurate prediction of time-changing variances is an important task in the modeling of financial data. Standard econometric models are often limited as they assume rigid functional relationships for the variances. Moreover, function…
We present here an elementary example, for every fixed positive integer $k,$ of a strictly stationary nongaussian stochastic process in discrete time, all of whose $k$-marginals are gaussian.
Using the concept of self-decomposable subordinators introduced in Gardini et al. [11], we build a new bivariate Normal Inverse Gaussian process that can capture stochastic delays. In addition, we also develop a novel path simulation scheme…
We propose stochastic, non-parametric activation functions that are fully learnable and individual to each neuron. Complexity and the risk of overfitting are controlled by placing a Gaussian process prior over these functions. The result is…
For the multivariate COGARCH process, we obtain explicit expressions for the second-order structure of the "squared returns" process observed on an equidistant grid. Based on this, we present a generalized method of moments estimator for…
We present new exact expressions for a class of moments for the geometric Brownian motion, in terms of determinants, obtained using a recurrence relation and combinatorial arguments for the case of a Ito's Wiener process. We then apply the…
In this paper we introduce a general stochastic representation for an important class of processes with resetting. It allows to describe any stochastic process intermittently terminated and restarted from a predefined random or non-random…
The problem of classifying graphs is ubiquitous in machine learning. While it is standard to apply graph neural networks or graph kernel methods, Gaussian processes can be employed by transforming spatial features from the graph domain into…
A highly efficient formulation of moment equations for stochastic reaction networks is introduced. It is based on a set of binomial moments that capture the combinatorics of the reaction processes. The resulting set of equations can be…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are widely used in nonparametric regression, classification and spatio-temporal modeling, motivated in part by a rich literature on theoretical properties. However, a well known drawback of GPs that limits their use…
We present a novel approach for explaining Gaussian processes (GPs) that can utilize the full analytical covariance structure present in GPs. Our method is based on the popular solution concept of Shapley values extended to stochastic…
After a quick review of superpositions of OU (supOU) processes, integrated sup\-OU processes and the supOU stochastic volatility model we estimate these processes by using the generalized method of moments (GMM). We show that the GMM…
State-space smoothing has found many applications in science and engineering. Under linear and Gaussian assumptions, smoothed estimates can be obtained using efficient recursions, for example Rauch-Tung-Striebel and Mayne-Fraser algorithms.…
We show that a special case of method of moment estimator derived from the Stein class coincides with the class of generalized score matching estimator. Choosing a suitable weight function for generalized score matching is not…