Related papers: Modeling Super-spreading Events for Infectious Dis…
A simplified susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic model and a small-world model are applied to analyse the spread and control of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) for Hong Kong in early 2003. From data available in mid April…
Using daily infection data for Hong Kong we explore the validity of a variety of models of disease propagation when applied to the SARS epidemic. Surrogate data methods show that simple random models are insufficient and that the standard…
Background: The global spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic has clearly shown the importance of considering the long-range transportation networks in the understanding of emerging diseases outbreaks. The…
In this article we use global and regional data from the SARS epidemic in conjunction with a model of susceptible, exposed, infective, diagnosed, and recovered classes of people (``SEIJR'') to extract average properties and rate constants…
The rapid worldwide spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) demonstrated the potential threat an infectious disease poses in a closely interconnected and interdependent world. Here we introduce a probabilistic model which…
We propose an extension of the classical susceptible infectious recovered (SIR) model that incorporates the effects of spatial propagation of an epidemic through a small number of additional compartments. The model is designed to capture…
The outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is still threatening the world because of a possible resurgence. In the current situation that effective medical treatments such as antiviral drugs are not discovered yet, dynamical…
The spread of infectious epidemics is often accelerated by super-spreader events. Understanding their effect is important, particularly in the context of standard epidemiological models, which require estimates for parameters such as $R_0$.…
We propose a simple model of spreading of some infection in an originally healthy population which is different from other models existing in the literature. In particular, we use an operator technique which allows us to describe in a…
Since 1927, until recently, models describing the spread of disease have mostly been of the SIR-compartmental type, based on the assumption that populations are homogeneous and well-mixed. The focus of these models have typically been on…
Multiple-type branching processes that model the spread of infectious diseases are investigated. In these stochastic processes, the disease goes through multiple stages before it eventually disappears. We mostly focus on the critical…
Pandemics can cause immense disruption and damage to communities and societies. Thus far, modeling of pandemics has focused on either large-scale difference equation models like the SIR and the SEIR models, or detailed micro-level…
We present a stochastic model for two successive SIR (Susceptible, Infectious, Recovered) epidemics in the same network structured population. Individuals infected during the first epidemic might have (partial) immunity for the second one.…
After the sudden outbreak of Coronavirus in Wuhan, continuous and rich data of the epidemic has been made public as the vital fact for decision support in control measures and aggressive implementation of containment strategies and plans.…
The Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) equations and their extensions comprise a commonly utilized set of models for understanding and predicting the course of an epidemic. In practice, it is of substantial interest to estimate the…
In a metapopulation network, infectious diseases spread widely because of the travel of individuals. In the present study, we consider a modified metapopulation Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model with a latent period, which we call…
We study the classic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model for the spread of an infectious disease. In this stochastic process, there are two competing mechanism: infection and recovery. Susceptible individuals may contract the disease…
Infectious diseases spread through human networks. Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model is one of the epidemic models to describe infection dynamics on a complex network connecting individuals. In the metapopulation SIR model, each node…
Modeling epidemic dynamics plays an important role in studying how diseases spread, predicting their future course, and designing strategies to control them. In this letter, we introduce a model of SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) type…
In this work, we review the figures used to characterize an epidemic outbreak most. Particular attention is drawn to epidemic spreading at time-varying transition rates. A time-varying SIR-like model is used to describe the epidemic…