Related papers: Hot-Cold Spots in Italian Macroseismic Data
Understanding human mobility in urban environments is of the utmost importance to manage traffic and for deploying new resources and services. In recent years, the problem is exacerbated due to rapid urbanization and climate changes. In an…
On 1 August 2009, the global Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) launched a prospective and comparative earthquake predictability experiment in Italy. The goal of the CSEP-Italy experiment is to test earthquake…
Earthquakes cannot be predicted with precision, but algorithms exist for intermediate-term middle range prediction of main shocks above a pre-assigned threshold, based on seismicity patterns. Few years ago, a first attempt was made in the…
Spatio-temporal areal data can be seen as a collection of time series which are spatially correlated according to a specific neighboring structure. Incorporating the temporal and spatial dimension into a statistical model poses challenges…
A climate state close to a tipping point will have a degenerate linear response to perturbations, which can be associated with extreme values of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). In this paper we contrast linearized…
Local temperature defined by a local canonical state of the respective subsystem, does not always exist in quantum many body systems. Here, we give some examples of how this breakdown of the temperature concept on small length scales might…
Active faults release elastic strain energy via a whole continuum of modes of slip, ranging from devastating earthquakes to Slow Slip Events and persistent creep. Understanding the mechanisms controlling the occurrence of rapid, dynamic…
The hydrologic cycle has wide impacts on the ocean salinity and circulation, carbon and nitrogen cycles, and the ecosystem. Under anthropogenic global warming, previous studies showed that the intensification of the hydrologic cycle is a…
We study a one-dimensional chain of harmonically coupled units in an asymmetric anharmonic soft potential. Due to nonlinear localisation of energy, this system exhibits extreme events in the sense that individual elements of the chain show…
Weather and climate extremes such as heatwaves are crucial climate hazards to people and ecosystems worldwide. In any region, climate change may alter their characteristics in complex ways so that rigorous and holistic quantification of the…
We propose a Small Area Estimation model based on Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (SAE-GAMLSS), for the estimation of household economic indicators. SAE-GAMLSS release the exponential family distributional…
We develop a technique to estimate spatially varying seismicity patterns. It is based on a Gaussian approximation of the underlying Poisson Process. A link function is used to estimate local moments of the seismicity from observed…
The climate change dispute is about changes over time of environmental characteristics (such as rainfall). Some people say that a possible change is not so much in the mean but rather in the extreme phenomena (that is, the average rainfall…
In many important systems exhibiting crackling noise --- intermittent avalanche-like relaxation response with power-law and, thus, self-similar distributed event sizes --- the "laws" for the rate of activity after large events are not…
The helioseismic properties of the wave scattering generated by monolithic and spaghetti sunspots are analyzed by means of numerical simulations. In these computations, an incident f or p1 mode travels through the sunspot model, which…
Spatial modelling of extreme values allows studying the risk of joint occurrence of extreme events at different locations and is of significant interest in climatic and other environmental sciences. A popular class of dependence models for…
To understand the observational properties of cosmological models, in particular, the temperature of the cosmic microwave background radiation, it is necessary to study their null geodesics. Dynamical systems theory, in conjunction with the…
Using a {\it collective} Monte Carlo algorithm we study the low-temperature and long-distance properties of two systems of two-dimensional classical tops. Both systems have the same spin-wave dynamics (low-temperature behavior) as a large…
Multistability is a phenomenon prevalent in many natural systems. In climate, for example, it allows the possibility of irreversible consequences on planetary scale as a result of climate change. Indeed, a climate ``tipping element'' is a…
After a large earthquake, the likelihood of successive strong aftershocks needs to be estimated. Exploiting similarities with critical phenomena, we introduce a scaling law for the decay in time following a main shock of the expected number…