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This paper addresses the advancement of probability tail bound analysis, a crucial statistical tool for assessing the probability of large deviations of random variables from their expected values. Traditional tail bounds, such as Markov's,…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-08-22 Shih-Yu Chang

We consider the problem of finding the optimal upper bound for the tail probability of a sum of $k$ nonnegative, independent and identically distributed random variables with given mean $x$. For $k=1$ the answer is given by Markov's…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-02-12 Tomasz Łuczak , Katarzyna Mieczkowska , Matas Šileikis

In this paper, following Nourdin-Peccati's methodology, we combine the Malliavin calculus and Stein's method to provide general bounds on the Wasserstein distance between functionals of a compound Hawkes process and a given Gaussian…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-04-06 Caroline Hillairet , Lorick Huang , Mahmoud Khabou , Anthony Reveillac

Generalized gamma distributions arise as limits in many settings involving random graphs, walks, trees, and branching processes. Pek\"oz, R\"ollin, and Ross (2016, arXiv:1309.4183 [math.PR]) exploited characterizing distributional fixed…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-08-08 Tobias Johnson , Erol Peköz

In a recent paper, Gaunt 2020 extended Stein's method to limit distributions that can be represented as a function $g:\mathbb{R}^d\rightarrow\mathbb{R}$ of a centered multivariate normal random vector $\Sigma^{1/2}\mathbf{Z}$ with…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-09-21 Robert E. Gaunt , Heather Sutcliffe

Identifying risk spillovers in financial markets is of great importance for assessing systemic risk and portfolio management. Granger causality in tail (or in risk) tests whether past extreme events of a time series help predicting future…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-05-07 Piero Mazzarisi , Silvia Zaoli , Carlo Campajola , Fabrizio Lillo

Motivated by the empirical observation of power-law distributions in the credits (e.g., ``likes'') of viral posts in social media, we introduce a high-dimensional tail index regression model and propose methods for estimation and inference…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-19 Yuya Sasaki , Jing Tao , Yulong Wang

We develop a new formulation of Stein's method to obtain computable upper bounds on the total variation distance between the geometric distribution and a distribution of interest. Our framework reduces the problem to the construction of a…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-03-21 Erol A. Peköz , Adrian Röllin , Nathan Ross

Insurance data can be asymmetric with heavy tails, causing inadequate adjustments of the usually applied models. To deal with this issue, hierarchical models for collective risk with heavy-tails of the claims distributions that take also…

Applications · Statistics 2021-01-26 Pamela M. Chiroque-Solano , Fernando A. S. Moura

We use Stein's method to obtain bounds on the rate of convergence for a class of statistics in geometric probability obtained as a sum of contributions from Poisson points which are exponentially stabilizing, i.e. locally determined in a…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Mathew D. Penrose , J. E. Yukich

In recent years several attempts have been made to extend tail modelling towards the modal part of the data. Frigessi et al. (2002) introduced dynamic mixtures of two components with a weight function {\pi} = {\pi}(x) smoothly connecting…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-03 Jan Beirlant , Gaonyalelwe Maribe , Philippe Naveau , Andrehette Verster

Statistical modeling of high dimensional extremes remains challenging and has generally been limited to moderate dimensions. Understanding structural relationships among variables at their extreme levels is crucial both for constructing…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-01 Mihyun Kim , Jeongjin Lee

Modelling excesses over a high threshold using the Pareto or generalized Pareto distribution (PD/GPD) is the most popular approach in extreme value statistics. This method typically requires high thresholds in order for the (G)PD to fit…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-01-13 Jan Beirlant , Elisabeth Joossens , Johan Segers

The extrapolation of extremes to values beyond the span of stationary univariate historical data is considered from Bayesian and Frequentist perspectives. The intention is to make predictions which in some sense "preserve probability". A…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-10-13 Allan McRobie

We present an estimate of the Wasserstein distance between the data distribution and the generation of score-based generative models. The sampling complexity with respect to dimension is $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{d})$, with a logarithmic constant.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-06 Xixian Wang , Zhongjian Wang

We investigate the right tail behavior of a certain class of GMC ratios, reminiscent of H\"older's inequality. We start with a heuristic argument to justify the optimal exponent in the tail estimate. Since Kahane's convexity inequality does…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-01 Yulai Huang

The univariate Piecing-Together approach (PT) fits a univariate generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to the upper tail of a given distribution function in a continuous manner. A multivariate extension was established by Aulbach et al.…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-11-13 Stefan Aulbach , Michael Falk , Martin Hofmann

The purpose of this paper is to synthesize the approaches taken by Chatterjee-Meckes and Reinert-R\"ollin in adapting Stein's method of exchangeable pairs for multivariate normal approximation. The more general linear regression condition…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-05-18 Elizabeth S. Meckes

We propose a new testing procedure about the tail weight parameter of multivariate Student $t$ distributions by having recourse to the Le Cam methodology. Our test is asymptotically as efficient as the classical likelihood ratio test, but…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-04-10 Christophe Ley , Anouk Neven

S. Geiss and J. Ylinen proposed the coupling method \cite{Geiss:Ylinen:21} to investigate the regularity for the solution to the backward stochastic differential equations with random coefficients. In this paper, we explore this method in…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-06-13 Xilin Zhou