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Uncertainty can be classified as either aleatoric (intrinsic randomness) or epistemic (imperfect knowledge of parameters). The majority of frameworks assessing infectious disease risk consider only epistemic uncertainty. We only ever…
We study an ecology-inspired model for a population of bounded size, whose dynamics is governed by random birth, death, and immigration events. Stochastic fluctuations in the number of individuals give rise to a succession of alternating…
This article is a presentation of specific recent results describing scaling limits of individual-based models. Thanks to them, we wish to relate the time-scales typical of demographic dynamics and natural selection to the parameters of the…
We develop a stochastic framework for viral population dynamics at the cellular level that explicitly incorporates the replication cycle with random stage durations. The model is formulated as a structured birth-death process coupled with a…
We study sequential Bayesian inference in stochastic kinetic models with latent factors. Assuming continuous observation of all the reactions, our focus is on joint inference of the unknown reaction rates and the dynamic latent states,…
Competition between species and genotypes is a dominant factor in a variety of ecological and evolutionary processes. Biological dynamics are typically highly stochastic, and therefore, analyzing a competitive system requires accounting for…
The spread of an epidemic process is considered in the context of a spatial SIR stochastic model that includes a parameter $0\le p\le 1$ that assigns weights $p$ and $1- p$ to global and local infective contacts respectively. The model was…
A growing part of the behavioral finance literature has addressed some of the stylized facts of financial time series as macroscopic patterns emerging from herding interactions among groups of agents with heterogeneous trading strategies…
The effect caused by the presence of a number of distinct time scales in a simple stochastic model for the Earth's atmosphere temperature fluctuations is studied. The model is described by a dissipative dynamics consisting of a set of…
The rampant phenomenon of overpopulation and the remarkable increase of human movements over the last decade have caused an aggressive re-emergence of dengue fever, which made it the subject of several research fields. In this regard,…
In this paper we study the dynamics of stochastic microorganism flocculation models. Given the strong influence of environmental and seasonal fluctuations that are present in these models, we propose a stochastic model that includes…
The transmission of monkeypox is studied using a stochastic model taking into account the biological aspects, the contact mechanisms and the demographic factors together with the intrinsic uncertainties. Our results provide insight into the…
Tipping points have been shown to be ubiquitous, both in models and empirically in a range of physical and biological systems. The question of how tipping points cascade through systems has been less well studied and is an important one. A…
A stochastic model, describing the growth of two competing infections on $\mathbb{R}^d$, is introduced. The growth is driven by outbursts in the infected region, an outburst in the type 1 (2) infected region transmitting the type 1 (2)…
We study the thermodynamic properties of a microscopic model of coupled oscillators that exhibits a dynamical phase transition from a desynchronized to a synchronized phase. We consider two different configurations for the thermodynamic…
This paper is concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an SEIR (susceptible -> exposed (=latent) -> infective -> removed) epidemic with a contact tracing scheme, in which removed individuals may name some of their infectious…
Comparisons of different treatments or production processes are the goals of a significant fraction of applied research. Unsurprisingly, two-sample problems play a main role in Statistics through natural questions such as `Is the the new…
Estimation of epidemiological and population parameters from molecular sequence data has become central to the understanding of infectious disease dynamics. Various models have been proposed to infer details of the dynamics that describe…
Accurate and reliable predictions of infectious disease dynamics can be valuable to public health organizations that plan interventions to decrease or prevent disease transmission. A great variety of models have been developed for this…
The behavior of interacting populations typically displays irregular temporal and spatial patterns that are difficult to reconcile with an underlying deterministic dynamics. A classical example is the heterogeneous distribution of plankton…