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We develop exact Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for discretely-sampled, directly and indirectly observed diffusions. The qualification "exact" refers to the fact that the invariant and limiting distribution of the Markov chains is the…

The mixed effects model for repeated measures (MMRM) has been widely used for the analysis of longitudinal clinical data collected at a number of fixed time points. We propose a robust extension of the MMRM for skewed and heavy-tailed data…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-12 Yongqiang Tang

A discussion on the possibility of reducing the variance of quasi-Monte Carlo estimators in applications. Further details are provided in the accompanying paper "Variance Reduction for Quasi-Monte Carlo".

Computation · Statistics 2015-01-15 Chris. J. Oates , Daniel Simpson , Mark Girolami

This document presents methods to remove the initialization or burn-in bias from Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimates, with consequences on parallel computing, convergence diagnostics and performance assessment. The document is written…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-12 Yves F. Atchadé , Pierre E. Jacob

This is a concise mathematical introduction to Monte Carlo methods, a rich family of algorithms with far-reaching applications in science and engineering. Monte Carlo methods are an exciting subject for mathematical statisticians and…

Computation · Statistics 2024-05-28 Daniel Sanz-Alonso , Omar Al-Ghattas

Markov Chain Monte Carlo is repeatedly used to analyze the properties of intractable distributions in a convenient way. In this paper we derive conditions for geometric ergodicity of a general class of nonparametric stochastic volatility…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-12-09 Jerzy P. Rydlewski , Małgorzata Snarska

This short note reviews the basic theory for quantifying both the asymptotic and preasymptotic convergence of Markov chain Monte Carlo estimators.

Probability · Mathematics 2021-10-15 Michael Betancourt

Markov Chain Monte Carlo based Bayesian data analysis has now become the method of choice for analyzing and interpreting data in almost all disciplines of science. In astronomy, over the last decade, we have also seen a steady increase in…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2017-08-30 Sanjib Sharma

We give a corrected version of the algorithm presented within the commented paper by M.A. Novotny, Phys. Rev. Lett. Vol. 74, 1 (1995) (cond-mat/9411086)

Condensed Matter · Physics 2016-08-31 Kurt Broderix , Reiner Kree

We introduce a novel time-homogeneous Markov embedding of a class of time inhomogeneous Markov chains widely used in the context of Monte Carlo sampling algorithms which allows us to answer one of the most basic, yet hard, question about…

Computation · Statistics 2015-04-15 Christophe Andrieu

We introduce an efficient numerical implementation of a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to sample a probability distribution on a manifold (introduced theoretically in Zappa, Holmes-Cerfon, Goodman (2018)), where the manifold is defined by…

Computation · Statistics 2023-08-22 Kerun Xu , Miranda Holmes-Cerfon

This paper presents a detailed theoretical analysis of the Langevin Monte Carlo sampling algorithm recently introduced in Durmus et al. (Efficient Bayesian computation by proximal Markov chain Monte Carlo: when Langevin meets Moreau, 2016)…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-05-26 Nicolas Brosse , Alain Durmus , Éric Moulines , Marcelo Pereyra

The literature in social network analysis has largely focused on methods and models which require complete network data; however there exist many networks which can only be studied via sampling methods due to the scale or complexity of the…

Applications · Statistics 2019-11-25 Haema Nilakanta , Zack W. Almquist , Galin L. Jones

Switching dynamical systems are an expressive model class for the analysis of time-series data. As in many fields within the natural and engineering sciences, the systems under study typically evolve continuously in time, it is natural to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-19 Lukas Köhs , Bastian Alt , Heinz Koeppl

This paper presents a novel theoretical Monte Carlo Markov chain procedure in the framework of graphs. It specifically deals with the construction of a Markov chain whose empirical distribution converges to a given reference one. The Markov…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-07-02 Roy Cerqueti , Emilio De Santis

Adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, which automatically tune their parameters based on past samples, have proved extremely useful in practice. The self-tuning mechanism makes them `non-Markovian', which means that their…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-08-28 Pietari Laitinen , Matti Vihola

This is a contribution for the discussion on "Unbiased Markov chain Monte Carlo with couplings" by Pierre E. Jacob, John O'Leary and Yves F. Atchad\'e to appear in the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B.

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-22 Leah F. South , Chris Nemeth , Chris J. Oates

Testing between hypotheses, when independent sampling is possible, is a well developed subject. In this paper, we propose hypothesis tests that are applicable when the samples are obtained using Markov chain Monte Carlo. These tests are…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-08-14 Benjamin M. Gyori , Daniel Paulin

It is a well-known rule of thumb that approximations of stochastic partial differential equations have essentially twice the order of weak convergence compared to the corresponding order of strong convergence. This is already known for many…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-09-28 Annika Lang

We propose approaches for testing implementations of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods as well as of general Monte Carlo methods. Based on statistical hypothesis tests, these approaches can be used in a unit testing framework to, for…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-21 Axel Gandy , James Scott