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We use extreme value theory to estimate the probability of successive exceedances of a threshold value of a time-series of an observable on several classes of chaotic dynamical systems. The observables have either a Fr\'echet (fat-tailed)…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-11-07 Meagan Carney , Mark Holland , Matthew Nicol , Phuong Tran

In this paper we study the distribution of hitting and return times for observations of dynamical systems. We apply this results to get an exponential law for the distribution of hitting and return times for rapidly mixing random dynamical…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2015-06-19 Jerome Rousseau

In this article we show that a large class of infinite measure preserving dynamical systems that do not admit physical measures nevertheless exhibit strong statistical properties. In particular, we give sufficient conditions for existence…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2026-04-30 Douglas Coates , Ian Melbourne , Amin Talebi

Suppose $(f,\mathcal{X},\mu)$ is a measure preserving dynamical system and $\phi \colon \mathcal{X} \to \mathbb{R}$ a measurable function. Consider the maximum process $M_n:=\max\{X_1 \ldots,X_n\}$, where $X_i=\phi\circ f^{i-1}$ is a time…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2021-09-15 Mark Holland , Maxim Kirsebom , Philipp Kunde , Tomas Persson

In this paper, we analyze several instrumental records of temperatures at different locations by using new techniques originally developed for the analysis of extreme values of dynamical systems. We show that they have the same recurrence…

Geophysics · Physics 2014-03-24 Davide Faranda , Sandro Vaienti

In this paper, we present new results on finite- and fixed-time convergence for dynamical systems using LaSalle-like invariance principles. In particular, we provide first and second-order non-smooth Lyapunov-like results for finite- and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-03-25 Kunal Garg

We introduce a new dynamical indicator of stability based on the Extreme Value statistics showing that it provides an insight on the local stability properties of dynamical systems. The indicator perform faster than other based on the…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-07-19 Davide Faranda , Valerio Lucarini , Giorgio Turchetti , Sandro Vaienti

Non-Hermitian systems can manifest rich static and dynamical properties at their exceptional points (EPs). Here, we identify yet another class of distinct phenomena that is hinged on EPs, namely, the emergence of a series of non-Hermitian…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-04-03 Zuo Wang , Liang He

Typically, in the dynamical theory of extremal events, the function that gauges the intensity of a phenomenon is assumed to be convex and maximal, or singular, at a single, or at most a finite collection of points in phase--space. In this…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2016-09-21 Giorgio Mantica , Luca Perotti

Consider an ergodic measure preserving dynamical system $(T,X,\mu)$, and an observable $\phi:X\to\mathbb{R}$. For the time series $X_n(x)=\phi(T^{n}(x))$, we establish limit laws for the maximum process $M_n=\max_{k\leq n}X_k$ in the case…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2020-05-13 Meagan Carney , Mark Holland , Matthew Nicol

We present a novel statistical treatment, the "metastatistics of extreme events", for calculating the frequency of extreme events. This approach, which is of general validity, is the proper statistical framework to address the problem of…

Applications · Statistics 2012-11-14 Massimiliano Ignaccolo , Marco Marani

Asymptotic laws of records values have usually been investigated as limits in type. In this paper, we use functional representations of the tail of cumulative distribution functions in the extreme value domain of attraction to directly…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-05-13 Gane Samb Lo , Mohammad ahsanullah

This work deals with the stability analysis of nonlinear sampled-data systems under nonuniform sampling. It establishes novel relationships between the stability property of the exact discrete-time model for a given sequence of (aperiodic)…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-09-28 Alexis J. Vallarella , Hernan Haimovich

We consider the asymptotic consistency of maximum likelihood parameter estimation for dynamical systems observed with noise. Under suitable conditions on the dynamical systems and the observations, we show that maximum likelihood parameter…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-12-01 Kevin McGoff , Sayan Mukherjee , Andrew Nobel , Natesh Pillai

Extreme events are unusual and rare large-amplitude fluctuations that occur can unexpectedly in nonlinear dynamical systems. Events above the extreme event threshold of the probability distribution of a nonlinear process characterize…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2023-03-08 Premraj Durairaj , Sathiyadevi Kanagaraj , Suresh Kumarasamy , Karthikeyan Rajagopal

We define a new class of positive and Lebesgue measurable functions in terms of their asymptotic behavior, which includes the class of regularly varying functions. We also characterize it by transformations, corresponding to generalized…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-12-02 Meitner Cadena , Marie Kratz

This study uses the link between extreme value laws and dynamical systems theory to show that important dynamical quantities as the correlation dimension, the entropy and the Lyapunov exponents can be obtained by fitting observables…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2018-05-23 Davide Faranda , Sandro Vaienti

There are two main approaches to non-equlibrium statistical mechanics: one using stochastic processes and the other using dynamical systems. To model the dynamics during inflation one usually adopts a stochastic description, which is known…

High Energy Physics - Theory · Physics 2016-03-29 Vitaly Vanchurin

We prove quenched laws of hitting time statistics for random subshifts of finite type. In particular we prove a dichotomy between the law for periodic and for non-periodic points. We show that this applies to random Gibbs measures.

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2015-11-06 Jérôme Rousseau , Mike Todd

We consider dynamical systems on a finite measure space fulfilling a spectral gap property and Birkhoff sums of a non-negative, non-integrable observable. For such systems we generalize strong laws of large numbers for intermediately…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2019-09-04 Marc Kesseböhmer , Tanja Schindler