Related papers: Credit Risk, Market Sentiment and Randomly-Timed D…
Risk management is an important practice in the banking industry. In this paper we develop a new methodology to estimate and predict the probability of default (PD) based on the rating transition matrices, which relates the rating…
The main purpose of this paper is to extend the information-based asset-pricing framework of Brody-Hughston-Macrina to a more general set-up. We include a wider class of models for market information and in contrast to the original paper,…
Pricing formulae for defaultable corporate bonds with discrete coupons under consideration of the government taxes in the united model of structural and reduced form models are provided. The aim of this paper is to generalize the…
In the information-based pricing framework of Brody, Hughston and Macrina, the market filtration $\{ \mathcal F_t\}_{t\geq 0}$ is generated by an information process $\{ \xi_t\}_{t\geq0}$ defined in such a way that at some fixed time $T$ an…
Credit capital requirements in Internal Rating Based approaches require the calibration of two key parameters: the probability of default and the loss-given-default. This letter considers the uncertainty about these two parameters and…
Risk-neutral default probabilities can be implied from credit default swap (CDS) market quotes. In practice, mid CDS quotes are used as inputs, as their risk-neutral counterparts are not observable. We show how to imply risk-neutral default…
This work focuses on financial risks from a probabilistic point of view. The value of a firm is described as a geometric Brownian motion and default emerges as a first passage time event. On the technical side, the critical threshold that…
There is empirical evidence that recovery rates tend to go down just when the number of defaults goes up in economic downturns. This has to be taken into account in estimation of the capital against credit risk required by Basel II to cover…
Transition risk can be defined as the business-risk related to the enactment of green policies, aimed at driving the society towards a sustainable and low-carbon economy. In particular, the value of certain firms' assets can be lower…
The current research on credit risk is primarily focused on modeling default probabilities. Recovery rates are often treated as an afterthought; they are modeled independently, in many cases they are even assumed constant. This is despite…
Credit risk assessment is a crucial aspect of financial decision-making, enabling institutions to predict the likelihood of default and make informed lending decisions. Two prominent methodologies in credit risk modeling are logistic…
A direct method for calculating default rates by industry and target corporate segments is not possible given the lack of statistical data. The proposed paper considers a model for filtering the dynamics of the probability of default of…
Since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), the use of stress tests as a tool for assessing the resilience of financial institutions to adverse financial and economic developments has increased significantly. One key part in such exercises is…
We propose a general framework for the simultaneous modeling of equity, government bonds, corporate bonds and derivatives. Uncertainty is generated by a general affine Markov process. The setting allows for stochastic volatility, jumps, the…
The paper studies estimation of parameters of diffusion market models from historical data. The standard definition of implied volatility for these models presents its value as an implicit function of several parameters, including the…
We discuss the pricing of defaultable assets in an incomplete information model where the default time is given by a first hitting time of an unobservable process. We show that in a fairly general Markov setting, the indicator function of…
This study delves into the temporal dynamics within the equity market through the lens of bond traders. Recognizing that the riskless interest rate fluctuates over time, we leverage the Black-Derman-Toy model to trace its temporal…
In this paper we introduce a class of information-based models for the pricing of fixed-income securities. We consider a set of continuous- time information processes that describe the flow of information about market factors in a monetary…
We analyze sources of error in prediction market forecasts in order to bound the difference between a security's price and the ground truth it estimates. We consider cost-function-based prediction markets in which an automated market maker…
In this article, we study the problem of pricing defaultable bond with discrete default intensity and barrier under constant risk free short rate using higher order binary options and their integrals. In our credit risk model, the risk free…