Related papers: Efficient Simulation and Conditional Functional Li…

In this study, we give an extension of Montanaro's arXiv/archive:1504.06987 quantum Monte Carlo method, tailored for computing expected values of random variables that exhibit infinite variance. This addresses a challenge in analyzing…

We introduce a trimmed version of the Hill estimator for the index of a heavy-tailed distribution, which is robust to perturbations in the extreme order statistics. In the ideal Pareto setting, the estimator is essentially finite-sample…

This paper considers an empirical risk minimization problem under heavy-tailed settings, where data does not have finite variance, but only has $p$-th moment with $p \in (1,2)$. Instead of using estimation procedure based on truncated…

This thesis evaluates most of the extreme mixture models and methods that have appended in the literature and implements them in the context of finance and insurance. The paper also reviews and studies extreme value theory, time series,…

Since many environmental processes such as heat waves or precipitation are spatial in extent, it is likely that a single extreme event affects several locations and the areal modeling of extremes is therefore essential if the spatial…

We consider multivariate extreme value statistics for independent but nonidentically distributed random vectors. In particular, the data may have varying tail copulas and also heteroscedastic marginal distributions. Assuming smoothly…

Rare event simulation and estimation for systems in equilibrium are among the most challenging topics in molecular dynamics. As was shown by Jarzynski and others, nonequilibrium forcing can theoretically be used to obtain equilibrium rare…

Consider $n$ i.i.d. random vectors on $\mathbb{R}^2$, with unknown, common distribution function $F$. Under a sharpening of the extreme value condition on $F$, we derive a weighted approximation of the corresponding tail copula process.…

We develop a martingale approximation approach to studying the limiting behavior of quadratic forms of Markov chains. We use the technique to examine the asymptotic behavior of lag-window estimators in time series and we apply the results…

At high levels, the asymptotic distribution of a stationary, regularly varying Markov chain is conveniently given by its tail process. The latter takes the form of a geometric random walk, the increment distribution depending on the sign of…

We give a brief discussion of the recently developed Constrained-Path Monte Carlo Method. This method is a quantum Monte Carlo technique that eliminates the fermion sign problem plaguing simulations of systems of interacting electrons. The…

We present an analytical technique to compute the probability of rare events in which the largest eigenvalue of a random matrix is atypically large (i.e.\ the right tail of its large deviations). The results also transfer to the left tail…

In this paper, we present a novel iterative Monte Carlo method for approximating the stationary probability of a single state of a positive recurrent Markov chain. We utilize the characterization that the stationary probability of a state…

We study the effect of approximation errors in assessing the extreme behavior of heavy-tailed random objects. We give conditions for the approximation error such that the standard asymptotic results hold for the classical Hill estimator and…

Having reliable estimates of the occurrence rates of extreme events is highly important for insurance companies, government agencies and the general public. The rarity of an extreme event is typically expressed through its return period,…

In this paper we present a novel methodology to perform Bayesian model selection in linear models with heavy-tailed distributions. We consider a finite mixture of distributions to model a latent variable where each component of the mixture…

Markov chain Monte Carlo methods such as Gibbs sampling and simple forms of the Metropolis algorithm typically move about the distribution being sampled via a random walk. For the complex, high-dimensional distributions commonly encountered…

We propose an extension of the regular Cox's proportional hazards model which allows the estimation of the probabilities of rare events. It is known that when the data are heavily censored at the upper end of the survival distribution, the…

Finding a target in a complex environment is a fundamental challenge in nature, from chemical reactions to sperm reaching an egg. An effective strategy to reduce the time needed to reach a target is to deploy many searchers, increasing the…

The term ``sequential Monte Carlo methods'' or, equivalently, ``particle filters,'' refers to a general class of iterative algorithms that performs Monte Carlo approximations of a given sequence of distributions of interest (\pi_t). We…