Related papers: Efficient Simulation and Conditional Functional Li…
The idea of rare event sampling is applied to the estimation of the performance of error-correcting codes. The essence of the idea is importance sampling of the pattern of noises in the channel by Multicanonical Monte Carlo, which enables…
This work introduces and compares approaches for estimating rare-event probabilities related to the number of edges in the random geometric graph on a Poisson point process. In the one-dimensional setting, we derive closed-form expressions…
We use the martingale convergence method to get the weak convergence theorem on general functionals of partial sums of independent heavy-tailed random variables. The limiting process is the stochastic integral driven by $\alpha-$stable…
The efficient calculation of rare-event kinetics in complex dynamical systems, such as the rate and pathways of ligand dissociation from a protein, is a generally unsolved problem. Markov state models can systematically integrate ensembles…
In this paper, we consider a classic problem concerning the high excursion probabilities of a Gaussian random field $f$ living on a compact set $T$. We develop efficient computational methods for the tail probabilities $P(\sup_T f(t) > b)$…
We introduce a set of tools which simplify and streamline the proofs of limit theorems concerning near-critical particles in branching random walks under optimal assumptions. We exemplify our method by giving another proof of the…
We propose a Monte Carlo method which performs a random walk in energy space using cluster-like collective updates. By imposing that bond probabilities depend continuously on the microcanonical temperature, we obtain dynamic exponents close…
Rare trajectories of stochastic systems are important to understand -- because of their potential impact. However, their properties are by definition difficult to sample directly. Population dynamics provides a numerical tool allowing their…
Our focus is on the design and analysis of efficient Monte Carlo methods for computing tail probabilities for the suprema of Gaussian random fields, along with conditional expectations of functionals of the fields given the existence of…
Rare events in stochastic processes with heavy-tailed distributions are controlled by the big jump principle, which states that a rare large fluctuation is produced by a single event and not by an accumulation of coherent small deviations.…
Quantum mechanics for many-body systems may be reduced to the evaluation of integrals in 3N dimensions using Monte-Carlo, providing the Quantum Monte Carlo ab initio methods. Here we limit ourselves to expectation values for trial…
We study the long-time behavior of the scaled walker (particle) position associated with decoupled continuous-time random walk which is characterized by superheavy-tailed distribution of waiting times and asymmetric heavy-tailed…
Adaptive Monte Carlo methods are very efficient techniques designed to tune simulation estimators on-line. In this work, we present an alternative to stochastic approximation to tune the optimal change of measure in the context of…
We consider Stochastic Volatility processes with heavy tails and possible long memory in volatility. We study the limiting conditional distribution of future events given that some present or past event was extreme (i.e. above a level which…
The prediction and control of rare events is an important task in disciplines that range from physics and biology, to economics and social science. The Big Jump principle deals with a peculiar aspect of the mechanism that drives rare…
The presence of erratic or unstable paths in standard kinetic Monte Carlo simulations significantly undermines the accurate simulation and sampling of transition pathways. While typically reliable methods, such as the Gillespie algorithm,…
In this paper, we investigate the extreme-value methodology, to propose an improved estimator of the conditional tail expectation ($CTE$) for a loss distribution with a finite mean but infinite variance. The present work introduces a new…
Bayesian inversions followed by estimations of rare event probabilities are often needed to analyse groundwater hazards. Instead of focusing on the posterior distribution of model parameters, the main interest lies then in the distribution…
Very often when studying non-equilibrium systems one is interested in analysing dynamical behaviour that occurs with very low probability, so called rare events. In practice, since rare events are by definition atypical, they are often…
Randomized search algorithms for hard combinatorial problems exhibit a large variability of performances. We study the different types of rare events which occur in such out-of-equilibrium stochastic processes and we show how they cooperate…