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A systematic Bayesian framework is developed for physics constrained parameter inference ofstochastic differential equations (SDE) from partial observations. The physical constraints arederived for stochastic climate models but are…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2016-11-25 Daniel Peavoy , Christian L. E. Franzke , Gareth O. Roberts

Stochastic sampling methods are arguably the most direct and least intrusive means of incorporating parametric uncertainty into numerical simulations of partial differential equations with random inputs. However, to achieve an overall error…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2014-04-09 Hans-Werner van Wyk

The reconstruction and inference of stochastic dynamical systems from data is a fundamental task in inverse problems and statistical learning. While surrogate modeling advances computational methods to approximate these dynamics, standard…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-04-14 Nicole Tianjiao Yang

We introduce a path sampling method for obtaining statistical properties of an arbitrary stochastic dynamics. The method works by decomposing a trajectory in time, estimating the probability of satisfying a progress constraint, modifying…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-04 Nicholas Guttenberg , Aaron R. Dinner , Jonathan Weare

We develop an approach to learn an interpretable semi-parametric model of a latent continuous-time stochastic dynamical system, assuming noisy high-dimensional outputs sampled at uneven times. The dynamics are described by a nonlinear…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-02-13 Lea Duncker , Gergo Bohner , Julien Boussard , Maneesh Sahani

This paper introduces a drift optimization model of stochastic optimization problems driven by regulated stochastic processes. A broad range of problems across operations research, machine learning, and statistics can be viewed as…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-06-10 Zihe Zhou , Harsha Honnappa , Raghu Pasupathy

Non-uniform sampling arises when an experimenter does not have full control over the sampling characteristics of the process under investigation. Moreover, it is introduced intentionally in algorithms such as Bayesian optimization and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-03 Stijn de Waele

In this article, we introduce a system of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) consisting of time-dependent covariates and consider both fixed and random effects set-ups. We also allow the functional part associated with the drift…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-16 Trisha Maitra , Sourabh Bhattacharya

Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) describe dynamical systems where deterministic flows, governed by a drift function, are superimposed with random fluctuations, dictated by a diffusion function. The accurate estimation (or discovery)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-22 Patrick Seifner , Kostadin Cvejoski , David Berghaus , Cesar Ojeda , Ramses J. Sanchez

Timeseries generated from a dynamical source can often be modeled as sample paths of a stochastic differential equation (SDE). The timeseries thus reflects the motion of a particle which flows along the direction provided by a drift /…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-11-03 Suddhasattwa Das

Many random processes can be simulated as the output of a deterministic model accepting random inputs. Such a model usually describes a complex mathematical or physical stochastic system and the randomness is introduced in the input…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-11-21 A. Gokcen Mahmutoglu , Alper T. Erdogan , Alper Demir

Dynamical system models with delayed dynamics and small noise arise in a variety of applications in science and engineering. In many applications, stable equilibrium or periodic behavior is critical to a well functioning system. Sufficient…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-10-27 David Lipshutz

We introduce a guided stochastic sampling method that augments sampling from diffusion models with physics-based guidance derived from partial differential equation (PDE) residuals and observational constraints, ensuring generated samples…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-28 Andrew Millard , Fredrik Lindsten , Zheng Zhao

Sampling from unnormalized multimodal distributions with limited density evaluations remains a fundamental challenge in machine learning and natural sciences. Successful approaches construct a bridge between a tractable reference and the…

In the analysis of stochastic dynamical systems described by stochastic differential equations (SDEs), it is often of interest to analyse the sensitivity of the expected value of a functional of the solution of the SDE with respect to…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-18 Han Cheng Lie

This study introduces a training-free conditional diffusion model for learning unknown stochastic differential equations (SDEs) using data. The proposed approach addresses key challenges in computational efficiency and accuracy for modeling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-07 Yanfang Liu , Yuan Chen , Dongbin Xiu , Guannan Zhang

The problem of drift estimation for the solution $X$ of a stochastic differential equation with L\'evy-type jumps is considered under discrete high-frequency observations with a growing observation window. An efficient and asymptotically…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-03-18 Arnaud Gloter , Dasha Loukianova , Hilmar Mai

Neural Stochastic Differential Equations (NSDEs) model the drift and diffusion functions of a stochastic process as neural networks. While NSDEs are known to make accurate predictions, their uncertainty quantification properties have been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-13 Andreas Look , Melih Kandemir , Barbara Rakitsch , Jan Peters

Dynamical systems that are subject to continuous uncertain fluctuations can be modelled using Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs). Controlling such system results in solving path constrained SDEs. Broadly, these problems fall under the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-06-16 Sumit Suthar , Soumyendu Raha

Many systems in physics, engineering, and biology exhibit multiscale stochastic dynamics, where low-dimensional slow variables evolve under the influence of high-dimensional fast processes. In practice, observations are often limited to a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-12 Anan Saha , Arnab Ganguly