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We discuss the existence and characterization of quasi-stationary distributions and Yaglom limits of self-similar Markov processes that reach 0 in finite time. By Yaglom limit, we mean the existence of a deterministic function $g$ and a…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-01-10 Bénédicte Haas , Víctor Manuel Rivero

This paper provides a precise error analysis for the maximum likelihood estimate $\hat{a}_{\text{ML}}(u_1^n)$ of the parameter $a$ given samples $u_1^n = (u_1, \ldots, u_n)'$ drawn from a nonstationary Gauss-Markov process $U_i = a U_{i-1}…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2021-03-29 Peida Tian , Victoria Kostina

In this article, we provide different representations for a time-fractional birth and death process $N_{\alpha}(t)$, whose transition probabilities are governed by a time-fractional system of differential equations. More specifically, we…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-04-30 Jorge Littin

This paper deals with ergodic theorems for particular time-inhomogeneous Markov processes, whose the time-inhomogeneity is asymptotically periodic. Under a Lyapunov/minorization condition, it is shown that, for any measurable bounded…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-04-06 William Oçafrain

This paper examines the quasi-stationary behavior of stochastic rumor processes. Using the results by van Doorn and Pollett (2008), we first prove that the continuous-time Maki--Thompson model has a unique quasi-stationary distribution…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-01 Iddo Ben-Ari , Elcio Lebensztayn , Lucas Sousa Santos

Quasi-stationary distributions (QSD) have been widely studied since the pioneering work of Kolmogorov (1938), Yaglom (1947) and Sevastyanov (1951). They appear as a natural object when considering Markov processes that are certainly…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-06-29 Pablo Groisman , Matthieu Jonckheere

The subcritical Markov branching process X(t) starting with one particle as the initial condition has the ultimate extinction probability q = 1. The branching mechanism in consideration is defined by the mixture of logarithmic distributions…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-12-06 Penka Mayster , Assen Tchorbadjieff

We propose two numerical schemes for approximating quasi-stationary distributions (QSD) of finite state Markov chains with absorbing states. Both schemes are described in terms of certain interacting chains in which the interaction is given…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-10-21 Amarjit Budhiraja , Nicolas Fraiman , Adam Waterbury

We consider the quasi-stationary distribution of the classical Shiryaev diffusion restricted to the interval $[0,A]$ with absorption at a fixed $A>0$. We derive analytically a closed-form formula for the distribution's fractional moment of…

Computation · Statistics 2019-04-08 Kexuan Li , Aleksey S. Polunchenko , Andrey Pepelyshev

This paper is about the existence and regularity of the transition probability matrix of a nonhomogeneous continuous-time Markov process with a countable state space. A standard approach to prove the existence of such a transition matrix is…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-04-29 Liuer Ye , Xianping Guo , Onésimo Hernández-Lerma

We consider periodic Markov chains with absorption. Applying to iterates of this periodic Markov chain criteria for the exponential convergence of conditional distributions of aperiodic absorbed Markov chains, we obtain exponential…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-11-08 Nicolas Champagnat , Denis Villemonais

For spectrally positive L\'evy processes killed on exiting the half-line, existence of a quasi-stationary distribution is characterized by the exponential integrability of the exit time, the Laplace exponent and the non-negativity of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-12-16 Kosuke Yamato

For a time-changed symmetric $\alpha$-stable process killed upon hitting zero, under the condition of entrance from infinity, we prove the existence and uniqueness of quasi-stationary distribution (QSD). The exponential convergence to the…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-06-14 Zhe-Kang Fang , Yong-Hua Mao , Tao Wang

This paper studies the quasi-stationary distributions for a single death process (or downwardly skip-free process) with killing defined on the non-negative integers, corresponding to a non-conservative transition rate matrix. The set…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-08-13 Zhe-Kang Fang , Yong-Hua Mao

We study a large class of reversible Markov chains with discrete state space and transition matrix $P_N$. We define the notion of a set of {\it metastable points} as a subset of the state space $\G_N$ such that (i) this set is reached from…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 A. Bovier , M. Eckhoff , V. Gayrard , M. Klein

For downward skip-free continuous-time Markov chains on non-negative integers stopped at zero, existence of a quasi-stationary distribution is studied. The scale function for these processes is introduced and the boundary is classified by a…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-03-03 Kosuke Yamato

Asymptotic expansions with explicit upper bounds for remainders are given for stationary distributions of nonlinearly perturbed semi-Markov processes with finite phase spaces. The corresponding algorithms are based on a special technique of…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-03-16 Dmitrii Silvestrov , Sergei Silvestrov

The distribution of the "mixing time" or the "time to stationarity" in a discrete time irreducible Markov chain, starting in state i, can be defined as the number of trials to reach a state sampled from the stationary distribution of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-03-05 Jeffrey J. Hunter

In this paper, we give a sufficient condition for the existence of a quasi-ergodic distribution for absorbing Markov processes. Using an orthogonal-polynomial approach, we prove that the previous main result is valid for the birth-death…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-02-25 Guoman He , Hanjun Zhang , Yixia Zhu

For general, almost surely absorbed Markov processes, we obtain necessary and sufficient conditions for exponential convergence to a unique quasi-stationary distribution in the total variation norm. These conditions also ensure the…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-12-25 Nicolas Champagnat , Denis Villemonais