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We study an optimal investment/consumption problem in a model capturing market and credit risk dependencies. Stochastic factors drive both the default intensity and the volatility of the stocks in the portfolio. We use the martingale…
The extreme cases of risk measures, when considered within the context of distributional ambiguity, provide significant guidance for practitioners specializing in risk management of quantitative finance and insurance. In contrast to the…
We study the discrete time risk process modelled by the skip-free random walk and we derive the results connected to the ruin probability, such as crossing the fixed level, for this kind of process. We use the method relying on the…
Predicting corporate default risk has long been a crucial topic in the finance field, as bankruptcies impose enormous costs on market participants as well as the economy as a whole. This paper aims to forecast frailty correlated default…
We consider economic obstacles that limit the reliability and accuracy of value-at-risk (VaR). Investors who manage large market transactions should take into account the impact of the randomness of large trade volumes on predictions of…
In behavioral finance, aversion affects investors' judgment of future uncertainty when profit and loss occur. Considering investors' aversion to loss and risk, and the ambiguous uncertainty characterizing asset returns, we construct a…
We introduce an arbitrage-free framework for robust valuation adjustments. An investor trades a credit default swap portfolio with a risky counterparty, and hedges credit risk by taking a position in defaultable bonds. The investor does not…
We compare two models of corporate default by calculating the Jeffreys-Kullback-Leibler divergence between their predicted default probabilities when asset correlations are either high or low. Our main results show that the divergence…
This paper studies the income fluctuation problem with capital income risk (i.e., dispersion in the rate of return to wealth). Wealth returns and labor earnings are allowed to be serially correlated and mutually dependent. Rewards can be…
In this paper, we study how class imbalance, typical of low-default credit portfolios, affects the performance of logistic regression models. Using a simulation study with controlled data-generating mechanisms, we vary (i) the level of…
Default risk calculus plays a crucial role in portfolio optimization when the risky asset is under threat of bankruptcy. However, traditional stochastic control techniques are not applicable in this scenario, and additional assumptions are…
This paper studies the consequences of capturing non-linear dependence among the covariates that drive the default of different obligors and the overall riskiness of their credit portfolio. Joint default modeling is, without loss of…
This work has the objective of estimating default probabilities and correlations of credit portfolios given default rate information through a Bayesian framework using Stan. We use Vasicek's single factor credit model to establish the…
Systemic risk is the risk that a company- or industry-level risk could trigger a huge collapse of another or even the whole institution. Various systemic risk measures have been proposed in the literature to quantify the domino and…
We develop a liquidity-sensitive multivariate volatility framework to improve the estimation of time-varying covariance structures under market frictions. We introduce two novel portfolio-level liquidity measures, liquidity jump and…
We review the recently introduced concept of variety of a financial portfolio and we sketch its importance for risk control purposes. The empirical behaviour of variety, correlation, exceedance correlation and asymmetry of the probability…
We discuss the use of saddlepoint methods in the analysis of portfolios, with particular reference to credit portfolios. The objective is to proceed from a model of the loss distribution, given through probabilities, correlations and the…
We study the consistency of sample mean-variance portfolios of arbitrarily high dimension that are based on Bayesian or shrinkage estimation of the input parameters as well as weighted sampling. In an asymptotic setting where the number of…
In recent years research on credit risk modelling has mainly focused on default probabilities. Recovery rates are usually modelled independently, quite often they are even assumed constant. Then, however, the structural connection between…
This study contributes to understanding Valuation Adjustments (xVA) by focussing on the dynamic hedging of Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA), corresponding Profit & Loss (P&L) and the P&L explain. This is done in a Monte Carlo simulation…