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The purpose of this paper is to advance the understanding of the conditions that give rise to flash crash contagion, particularly with respect to overlapping asset portfolio crowding. To this end, we designed, implemented, and assessed a…
Default risk significantly affects the corporate policies of a firm. We develop a model in which a limited liability entity subject to Poisson default shock jointly sets its dividend policy and capital structure to maximize the expected…
Common asset holdings are widely believed to have been the primary vector of contagion in the recent financial crisis. We develop a network approach to the amplification of financial contagion due to the combination of overlapping…
The use of factor stochastic volatility models requires choosing the number of latent factors used to describe the dynamics of the financial returns process; however, empirical evidence suggests that the number and makeup of pertinent…
We quantify model risk of a financial portfolio whereby a multi-period mean-standard-deviation criterion is used as a selection criterion. In this work, model risk is defined as the loss due to uncertainty of the underlying distribution of…
We propose a stochastic model allowing property and casualty insurers with multiple business lines to measure their liabilities for incurred claims risk and calculate associated capital requirements. Our model includes many desirable…
Measuring model risk is required by regulators on financial and insurance markets. We separate model risk into parameter estimation risk and model specification risk, and we propose expected shortfall type model risk measures applied to…
It is a well known fact that recovery rates tend to go down when the number of defaults goes up in economic downturns. We demonstrate how the loss given default model with the default and recovery dependent via the latent systematic risk…
Credit risk stress testing has become an important risk management device which is used both by banks internally and by regulators. Stress testing is complex because it essentially means projecting a bank's full balance sheet conditional on…
Managing a portfolio to a risk model can tilt the portfolio toward weaknesses of the model. As a result, the optimized portfolio acquires downside exposure to uncertainty in the model itself, what we call "second order risk." We propose a…
We provide a general probabilistic framework within which we establish scaling limits for a class of continuous-time stochastic volatility models with self-exciting jump dynamics. In the scaling limit, the joint dynamics of asset returns…
This paper develops a method to derive optimal portfolios and risk premia explicitly in a general diffusion model for an investor with power utility and a long horizon. The market has several risky assets and is potentially incomplete.…
Determining contributions by sub-portfolios or single exposures to portfolio-wide economic capital for credit risk is an important risk measurement task. Often economic capital is measured as Value-at-Risk (VaR) of the portfolio loss…
Path integral techniques for the pricing of financial options are mostly based on models that can be recast in terms of a Fokker-Planck differential equation and that, consequently, neglect jumps and only describe drift and diffusion. We…
This article develops a model that takes into account skewness risk in risk parity portfolios. In this framework, asset returns are viewed as stochastic processes with jumps or random variables generated by a Gaussian mixture distribution.…
We investigate models of the life annuity insurance when the company invests its reserve into a risky asset with price following a geometric Brownian motion. Our main result is an exact asymptotic of the ruin probabilities for the case of…
This paper explores option portfolio optimization when the underlying returns are skew-elliptical t-distributed. We use the variance and value at risk (VaR) to measure portfolio risk. The novelty of our work is the departure from the…
We develop a novel multivariate semi-parametric framework for joint portfolio Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) forecasting. Unlike existing univariate semi-parametric approaches, the proposed framework explicitly models the…
Generally, in the financial literature, the notion of quadratic VaR is implicitly confused with the Delta-Gamma VaR, because more authors dealt with portfolios that contains derivatives instruments. In this paper, we postpone to estimate…
This paper proposes a new methodology to compute Value at Risk (VaR) for quantifying losses in credit portfolios. We approximate the cumulative distribution of the loss function by a finite combination of Haar wavelets basis functions and…