Related papers: A Loan Portfolio Model Subject to Random Liabiliti…
We propose a credit risk model for portfolios composed of green and brown loans, extending the ASRF framework via a two-factor copula structure. Systematic risk is modeled using potentially skewed distributions, allowing for asymmetric…
In many insurance contexts, dependence between risks of a portfolio may arise from their frequencies. We investigate a dependent risk model in which we assume the vector of count variables to be a tree-structured Markov random field with…
We introduce a novel machine learning model for credit risk by combining tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model accounting for frailty correlation. This allows for modeling non-linearities and interactions among…
Complex non-linear interactions between banks and assets we model by two time-dependent Erd\H{o}s Renyi network models where each node, representing bank, can invest either to a single asset (model I) or multiple assets (model II). We use…
We investigate the impact of available information on the estimation of the default probability within a generalized structural model for credit risk. The traditional structural model where default is triggered when the value of the firm's…
The interconnectedness of financial institutions affects instability and credit crises. To quantify systemic risk we introduce here the PD model, a dynamic model that combines credit risk techniques with a contagion mechanism on the network…
In the Vasicek credit portfolio model, tail risk is driven primarily by the asset-correlation parameter, yet empirically is subject to correlation risk. We propose a stochastic correlation extension of the Vasicek framework in which the…
Systemic risk arises as a multi-layer network phenomenon. Layers represent direct financial exposures of various types, including interbank liabilities, derivative- or foreign exchange exposures. Another network layer of systemic risk…
This article studies a portfolio optimization problem, where the market consisting of several stocks is modeled by a multi-dimensional jump-diffusion process with age-dependent semi-Markov modulated coefficients. We study risk sensitive…
Portfolio selection in the periodic investment of securities modeled by a multivariate Merton model with dependent jumps is considered. The optimization framework is designed to maximize expected terminal wealth when portfolio risk is…
A simple banking network model is proposed which features multiple waves of bank defaults and is analytically solvable in the limiting case of an infinitely large homogeneous network. The model is a collection of nodes representing…
We develop a finite horizon continuous time market model, where risk averse investors maximize utility from terminal wealth by dynamically investing in a risk-free money market account, a stock written on a default-free dividend process,…
The instability of the financial system as experienced in recent years and in previous periods is often linked to credit defaults, i.e., to the failure of obligors to make promised payments. Given the large number of credit contracts, this…
Designing dynamic portfolio insurance strategies under market conditions switching between two or more regimes is a challenging task in financial economics. Recently, a promising approach employing the value-at-risk (VaR) measure to assign…
In this paper we analyze the resilience of a network of banks to joint price fluctuations of the external assets in which they have shared exposures, and evaluate the worst-case effects of the possible default contagion. Indeed, when the…
We present an analytical model to study the role of expectation feedbacks and overlapping portfolios on systemic stability of financial systems. Building on [Corsi et al., 2016], we model a set of financial institutions having Value at Risk…
We consider a mean-variance portfolio selection problem in a financial market with contagion risk. The risky assets follow a jump-diffusion model, in which jumps are driven by a multivariate Hawkes process with mutual-excitation effect. The…
In this paper, we define probabilistic measures for venture portfolio performance based on individual outlier probability for each investment and the dependence across investments. This work is inspired by loan portfolio modeling against…
We investigate the quantification of demographic risk in a framework consistent with the market-consistent valuation imposed by Solvency II. We provide compact formulas for evaluating inflows and outflows of a portfolio of insurance…
The ongoing concern about systemic risk since the outburst of the global financial crisis has highlighted the need for risk measures at the level of sets of interconnected financial components, such as portfolios, institutions or members of…