Related papers: The Financial Bubble Experiment: Advanced Diagnost…
This is the third installment of the Financial Bubble Experiment. Here we provide the digital fingerprint of an electronic document in which we identify 27 bubbles in 27 different global assets; for 25 of these assets, we present windows of…
On 2 November 2009, the Financial Bubble Experiment was launched within the Financial Crisis Observatory (FCO) at ETH Zurich (\url{http://www.er.ethz.ch/fco/}). In that initial report, we diagnosed and announced three bubbles on three…
We highlight a very simple statistical tool for the analysis of financial bubbles, which has already been studied in [1]. We provide extensive empirical tests of this statistical tool and investigate analytically its link with stocks…
The financial crisis of 2008, which started with an initially well-defined epicenter focused on mortgage backed securities (MBS), has been cascading into a global economic recession, whose increasing severity and uncertain duration has led…
We propose two rational expectation models of transient financial bubbles with heterogeneous arbitrageurs and positive feedbacks leading to self-reinforcing transient stochastic faster-than-exponential price dynamics. As a result of the…
We define a financial bubble as a period of unsustainable growth, when the price of an asset increases ever more quickly, in a series of accelerating phases of corrections and rebounds. More technically, during a bubble phase, the price…
This article continues our analysis of the gold price dynamics that was published in December 2010 (abs/1012.4118) and forecasted the possibility of the "burst of the gold bubble" in April - June 2011. Our recent analysis suggests the…
Financial bubbles and crashes have repeatedly caused economic turmoil notably but not only during the 2008 financial crisis. However, both in the popular press as well as scientific publications, the meaning of bubble is sometimes…
Proving the existence of speculative financial bubbles even a posteriori has proven exceedingly difficult so anticipating a speculative bubble ex ante would at first seem an impossible task. Still as illustrated by the recent turmoil in…
Using a recently introduced rational expectation model of bubbles, based on the interplay between stochasticity and positive feedbacks of prices on returns and volatility, we develop a new methodology to test how this model classifies 9…
This study presents a three-step machine learning framework to predict bubbles in the S&P 500 stock market by combining financial news sentiment with macroeconomic indicators. Building on traditional econometric approaches, the proposed…
We present a synthesis of all the available empirical evidence in the light of recent theoretical developments for the existence of characteristic log-periodic signatures of growing bubbles in a variety of markets including 8 unrelated…
A hypothesis that the financial log-periodicity, cascading self-similarity through various time scales, carries signatures of a law is pursued. It is shown that the most significant historical financial events can be classified amazingly…
Emerging markets such as India provide investors with returns far greater than those in developed markets; taking the average returns from the period 1995 to 2014 the returns are 4.714% to 3.276% of the developed market. The majority of…
In this paper we employ deep learning techniques to detect financial asset bubbles by using observed call option prices. The proposed algorithm is widely applicable and model-independent. We test the accuracy of our methodology in numerical…
We present a self-consistent model for explosive financial bubbles, which combines a mean-reverting volatility process and a stochastic conditional return which reflects nonlinear positive feedbacks and continuous updates of the investors'…
We introduce a mathematical criterion defining the bubbles or the crashes in financial market price fluctuations by considering exponential fitting of the given data. By applying this criterion we can automatically extract the periods in…
We study the concept of financial bubble in a market model endowed with a set of probability measures, typically mutually singular to each other. In this setting we introduce the notions of robust bubble and robust fundamental value in a…
The principal aim of this work is the evidence on empirical way that catastrophic bifurcation breakdowns or transitions, proceeded by flickering phenomenon, are present on notoriously significant and unpredictable financial markets.…
The recent surge in valuations among AI related firms has renewed concerns that markets may be entering a new phase of speculative exuberance, especially in the technology and semiconductor sectors at the center of the AI investment wave.…