Related papers: On the Relation between Realizable and Nonrealizab…
The problem is sequence prediction in the following setting. A sequence $x_1,...,x_n,...$ of discrete-valued observations is generated according to some unknown probabilistic law (measure) $\mu$. After observing each outcome, it is required…
The problem is sequence prediction in the following setting. A sequence $x_1,...,x_n,...$ of discrete-valued observations is generated according to some unknown probabilistic law (measure) $\mu$. After observing each outcome, it is required…
The problem is sequence prediction in the following setting. A sequence x1,..., xn,... of discrete-valued observations is generated according to some unknown probabilistic law (measure) mu. After observing each outcome, it is required to…
Suppose we are given two probability measures on the set of one-way infinite finite-alphabet sequences and consider the question when one of the measures predicts the other, that is, when conditional probabilities converge (in a certain…
Two series of binary observations $x_1,x_1,...$ and $y_1,y_2,...$ are presented: at each time $n\in\N$ we are given $x_n$ and $y_n$. It is assumed that the sequences are generated independently of each other by two B-processes. We are…
We study the question, ``For which reals $x$ does there exist a measure $\mu$ such that $x$ is random relative to $\mu$?'' We show that for every nonrecursive $x$, there is a measure which makes $x$ random without concentrating on $x$. We…
The problem is that of sequential probability forecasting for finite-valued time series. The data is generated by an unknown probability distribution over the space of all one-way infinite sequences. It is known that this measure belongs to…
The problem of sequential probability forecasting is considered in the most general setting: a model set C is given, and it is required to predict as well as possible if any of the measures (environments) in C is chosen to generate the…
When we test a theory using data, it is common to focus on correctness: do the predictions of the theory match what we see in the data? But we also care about completeness: how much of the predictable variation in the data is captured by…
The probability of observing $x_t$ at time $t$, given past observations $x_1...x_{t-1}$ can be computed with Bayes' rule if the true generating distribution $\mu$ of the sequences $x_1x_2x_3...$ is known. If $\mu$ is unknown, but known to…
The paper concerns the probabilistic evaluation of plans in the presence of unmeasured variables, each plan consisting of several concurrent or sequential actions. We establish a graphical criterion for recognizing when the effects of a…
We consider the problem of sequentially testing for changes in the mean parameter of a time series, compared to a benchmark period. Most tests in the literature focus on the null hypothesis of a constant mean versus the alternative of a…
A causal set is a partially ordered set on a countably infinite ground-set such that each element is above finitely many others. A natural extension of a causal set is an enumeration of its elements which respects the order. We bring…
The predictability of a sequence is defined as the asymptotic performance of the best performing predictor in a given class. The value of the predictability of a sequence will in general depend on the choice of this predictor class. The…
Solomonoff's central result on induction is that the posterior of a universal semimeasure M converges rapidly and with probability 1 to the true sequence generating posterior mu, if the latter is computable. Hence, M is eligible as a…
Consider a finite set of sources, each producing i.i.d. observations that follow a unique probability distribution on a finite alphabet. We study the problem of matching a finite set of observed sequences to the set of sources under the…
The true process that generated data cannot be determined when multiple explanations are possible. Prediction requires a model of the probability that a process, chosen randomly from the set of candidate explanations, generates some future…
In a variety of applications it is important to extract information from a probability measure $\mu$ on an infinite dimensional space. Examples include the Bayesian approach to inverse problems and possibly conditioned) continuous time…
We consider the task of forecasting an infinite sequence of future observations based on some number of past observations, where the probability measure generating the observations is "suspected" to satisfy one or more of a set of…
Solomonoff's central result on induction is that the posterior of a universal semimeasure M converges rapidly and with probability 1 to the true sequence generating posterior mu, if the latter is computable. Hence, M is eligible as a…