Related papers: Gambling scores in earthquake prediction analysis

This paper describes the use of the idea of natural time to propose a new method for characterizing the seismic risk to the world's major cities at risk of earthquakes. Rather than focus on forecasting, which is the computation of…

Geometrical complexities in natural fault zones, such as steps and gaps, pose a challenge in seismic hazard studies as they can act as obstacles to seismic ruptures. In this study, we propose a criterion, which is based on the…

Artificial intelligence-based systems for player risk detection have become central to harm prevention efforts in the gambling industry. However, growing concerns around transparency and effectiveness have highlighted the absence of…

This paper provides theoretical and practical arguments regarding the possibility of predicting strong and major earthquakes worldwide. Many strong and major earthquakes can be predicted at least two to five months in advance, based on…

Autonomous hazard detection and avoidance is a key technology for future landing missions in unknown surface conditions. Current state-of-the-art stochastic algorithms assume simple Gaussian measurement noise on dense, high-fidelity digital…

This paper presents an efficient numerical sensitivity-estimation method and implementation for continuous-gravitational-wave searches, extending and generalizing an earlier analytic approach by Wette [1]. This estimation framework applies…

The occurrence of successive extreme observations can have an impact on society. In extreme value theory there are parameters to evaluate the effect of clustering of high values, such as the extremal index. The estimation of the extremal…

We propose a new version of the ETAS model, which we also analyze theoretically. As for the standard ETAS model, we assume the Gutenberg-Richter law as a probability density function for background events' magnitude. Instead, the magnitude…

We introduce the prediction value (PV) as a measure of players' informational importance in probabilistic TU games. The latter combine a standard TU game and a probability distribution over the set of coalitions. Player $i$'s prediction…

Forecasts of the focal mechanisms of future earthquakes are important for seismic hazard estimates and Coulomb stress and other models of earthquake occurrence. Here we report on a high-resolution global forecast of earthquake rate density…

Without rigorous attention to the completeness of earthquake catalogs, claims of new discoveries or forecasting skills cannot be deemed credible. Therefore, estimating the completeness magnitude (Mc) is a critical step. Among various…

Th\^eo1 is a frequency stability statistic which is similar to the Allan variance but can provide stability estimates at longer averaging factors and with higher confidence. However, the calculation of Th\^eo1 is significantly slower than…

Nearly all aspects of earthquake rupture are controlled by the friction along the fault that progressively increases with tectonic forcing, but in general cannot be directly measured. We show that fault friction can be determined at any…

Banks utilize credit scoring as an important indicator of financial strength and eligibility for credit. Scoring models aim to assign statistical odds or probabilities for predicting if there is a risk of nonpayment in relation to many…

Frequency-magnitude distributions, and their associated uncertainties, are of key importance in statistical seismology. When fitting these distributions, the assumption of Gaussian residuals is invalid since event numbers are both discrete…

Standard inference about a scalar parameter estimated via GMM amounts to applying a t-test to a particular set of observations. If the number of observations is not very large, then moderately heavy tails can lead to poor behavior of the…

Given a model $f$ that predicts a target $y$ from a vector of input features $\pmb{x} = x_1, x_2, \ldots, x_M$, we seek to measure the importance of each feature with respect to the model's ability to make a good prediction. To this end, we…

The rapid characterisation of earthquake parameters such as its magnitude is at the heart of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW). In traditional EEW methods the robustness in the estimation of earthquake parameters have been observed to increase…

This article investigates the influence of luck and strategic considerations on performance of teams participating in the M6 investment challenge. We find that there is insufficient evidence to suggest that the extreme Sharpe ratios…

Randomized benchmarking is a promising tool for characterizing the noise in experimental implementations of quantum systems. In this paper, we prove that the estimates produced by randomized benchmarking (both standard and interleaved) for…