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We study the problem of estimating the origin of an epidemic outbreak -- given a contact network and a snapshot of epidemic spread at a certain time, determine the infection source. Finding the source is important in different contexts of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2014-11-20 Andrey Y. Lokhov , Marc Mézard , Hiroki Ohta , Lenka Zdeborová

In a complex network, different groups of nodes may have existed for different amounts of time. To detect the evolutionary history of a network is of great importance. We present a general method based on spectral analysis to address this…

Physics and Society · Physics 2012-02-21 Zhu Guimei , Yang Huijie , Yang Rui , Ren Jie , Li Baowen , Lai Ying-Cheng

The use of network theory to model disease propagation on populations introduces important elements of reality to the classical epidemiological models. The use of random geometric graphs (RGG) is one of such network models that allows for…

Physics and Society · Physics 2016-12-21 Ernesto Estrada , Sandro Meloni , Matthew Sheerin , Yamir Moreno

We consider an SIR epidemic model propagating on a configuration model network, where the degree distribution of the vertices is given and where the edges are randomly matched. The evolution of the epidemic is summed up into three…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-05-09 Laurent Decreusefond , Jean-Stéphane Dhersin , Pascal Moyal , Viet Chi Tran

Motivated by the increasing number of COVID-19 cases that have been observed in many countries after the vaccination and relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions, we propose a mathematical model on time-varying networks for the spread…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2022-03-09 Kathinka Frieswijk , Lorenzo Zino , Ming Cao

Conventional studies of network growth models mainly look at the steady state degree distribution of the graph. Often long time behavior is considered, hence the initial condition is ignored. In this contribution, the time evolution of the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2013-05-10 Babak Fotouhi , Michael Rabbat

A compartment epidemic model for infectious disease spreading is investigated, where movement of individuals is governed by spatial diffusion. The model includes infection age of the infected individuals and assumes a logistic growth of the…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2023-06-28 Christoph Walker

can evolve simultaneously. For the information-driven adaptive process, susceptible (infected) individuals who have abilities to recognize the disease would break the links of their infected (susceptible) neighbors to prevent the epidemic…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-05-20 Xiu-Xiu Zhan , Chuang Liu , Gui-Quan Sun , Zi-Ke Zhang

The spread of an epidemic disease and the population's collective behavioural response are deeply intertwined, influencing each other's evolution. Such a co-evolution typically has been overlooked in mathematical models, limiting their…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-10-24 Kathinka Frieswijk , Lorenzo Zino , Mengbin Ye , Alessandro Rizzo , Ming Cao

We study the problem of estimating the parameters (i.e., infection rate and recovery rate) governing the spread of epidemics in networks. Such parameters are typically estimated by measuring various characteristics (such as the number of…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-05-12 Lintao Ye , Philip E. Paré , Shreyas Sundaram

Real epidemic spreading networks often composed of several kinds of networks interconnected with each other, and the interrelated networks have the different topologies and epidemic dynamics. Moreover, most human diseases are derived from…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-06-21 Zhongpu Xu , Xinchu Fu

Weight distribution largely impacts the epidemic spreading taking place on top of networks. This paper studies a susceptible-infected-susceptible model on regular random networks with different kinds of weight distributions. Simulation…

Physics and Society · Physics 2012-07-16 Zimo Yang , Tao Zhou

We develop a mathematical framework to study the economic impact of infectious diseases by integrating epidemiological dynamics with a kinetic model of wealth exchange. The multi-agent description leads to study the evolution over time of a…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-08-12 G. Dimarco , L. Pareschi , G. Toscani , M. Zanella

We study several bayesian inference problems for irreversible stochastic epidemic models on networks from a statistical physics viewpoint. We derive equations which allow to accurately compute the posterior distribution of the time…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2014-03-28 Fabrizio Altarelli , Alfredo Braunstein , Luca Dall'Asta , Alejandro Lage-Castellanos , Riccardo Zecchina

Dynamical processes taking place on networks have received much attention in recent years, especially on various models of random graphs (including small world and scale free networks). They model a variety of phenomena, including the…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Jonathan Rowe , Boris Mitavskiy

This study is concerned with the dynamical behaviors of epidemic spreading over a two-layered interconnected network. Three models in different levels are proposed to describe cooperative spreading processes over the interconnected network,…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-02-15 Xiang Wei , Xiaoqun Wu , Shihua Chen , Jun-an Lu , Guanrong Chen

For a reliable prediction of an epidemic or information spreading pattern in complex systems, well-defined measures are essential. In the susceptible-infected model on heterogeneous networks, the cluster of infected nodes in the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2019-04-10 Mi Jin Lee , Deok-Sun Lee

The reconstruction of phylogenetic trees based on viral genetic sequence data sequentially sampled from an epidemic provides estimates of the past transmission dynamics, by fitting epidemiological models to these trees. To our knowledge,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2013-06-17 Amaury Lambert , Helen K. Alexander , Tanja Stadler

Spreading processes on graphs are a natural model for a wide variety of real-world phenomena, including information spread over social networks and biological diseases spreading over contact networks. Often, the networks over which these…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2021-02-12 Jessica Enright , Kitty Meeks , George B. Mertzios , Viktor Zamaraev

Capturing the structured mixing within a population is key to the reliable projection of infectious disease dynamics and hence informed control. Both heterogeneity in the number of contacts and age-structured mixing have been repeatedly…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2026-03-17 Luke Murray Kearney , Emma L Davis , Matt J Keeling