Related papers: The Barrier Method: A Technique for Calculating Ve…
Combining the increasing availability and abundance of healthcare data and the current advances in machine learning methods have created renewed opportunities to improve clinical decision support systems. However, in healthcare risk…
Exploiting stochastic path integral theory, we obtain \emph{by simulation} substantial gains in efficiency for the computation of reaction rates in one-dimensional, bistable, overdamped stochastic systems. Using a well-defined measure of…
We study localisation transition in a class of quasi-periodic systems that has two competing periodic scales. We show that such class of systems show a re-entrant localisation transition where the energy scale of transition is set by the…
Dynamic networks exhibit temporal patterns that vary across different time scales, all of which can potentially affect processes that take place on the network. However, most data-driven approaches used to model time-varying networks…
Stochastic dynamical systems allow modelling of transitions induced by disturbances, in particular from an attracting equilibrium and crossing the stable manifold of a saddle. In the small-noise limit, the probability of such transitions is…
We review two recently developed efficient methods for calculating rate constants of processes dominated by rare events in high-dimensional complex systems. The first is transition interface sampling (TIS), based on the measurement of…
A numerical technique used to solve boundary value problems is modified to find periodic steady-state solutions of nonautonomous dynamical systems. The technique uses a matrix representation of the time derivative obtained through…
Whereas the importance of transient dynamics to the functionality and management of complex systems has been increasingly recognized, most of the studies are based on models. Yet in realistic situations the models are often unknown and what…
Predicting extreme events in nonlinear dynamical systems is challenging due to a limited understanding of their statistical properties. This study numerically and theoretically investigates the statistical properties of infinite-modal maps…
Interacting particle systems with many degrees of freedom may undergo phase transitions to sustain atypical fluctuations of dynamical observables such as the current or the activity. This leads in some cases to symmetry-broken space-time…
We study rare events in networks with both internal and external noise, and develop a general formalism for analyzing rare events that combines pair-quenched techniques and large-deviation theory. The probability distribution, shape, and…
Research in epidemiology often focusses on designing interventions that result in the number of infected individuals asymptotically approaching zero, without considering that this number may peak at high values during transients. Recent…
A new theoretical approach to non-equilibrium statistical systems has recently been proposed by the author, a co-author and others. It is based on a variational principle which is associated with the discrepancy of a path through…
A one-dimensional model on a line of the length L is investigated, which involves particle diffusion as well as single particle annihilation. There are also creation and annihilation at the boundaries. The static and dynamical behaviors of…
Statistical techniques play a large role in the structural health monitoring of instrumented infrastructure, such as a railway bridge constructed with an integrated network of fibre optic sensors. One possible way to reason about the…
Many areas of research are characterised by the deluge of large-scale highly-dimensional time-series data. However, using the data available for prediction and decision making is hampered by the current lag in our ability to uncover and…
Discrete event systems are present both in observations of nature, socio economical sciences, and industrial systems. Standard analysis approaches do not usually exploit their dual event / state nature: signals are either modeled as…
Birth-death processes track the size of a univariate population, but many biological systems involve interaction between populations, necessitating models for two or more populations simultaneously. A lack of efficient methods for…
In this work, we review the figures used to characterize an epidemic outbreak most. Particular attention is drawn to epidemic spreading at time-varying transition rates. A time-varying SIR-like model is used to describe the epidemic…
Rare events in the first-passage distributions of jump processes are capable of triggering anomalous reactions or series of events. Estimating their probability is particularly important when the jump probabilities have broad-tailed…