Related papers: Earthquake prediction analysis: The M8 algorithm
Due to the growing adoption of deep neural networks in many fields of science and engineering, modeling and estimating their uncertainties has become of primary importance. Despite the growing literature about uncertainty quantification in…
As an object of study, we chose the global activity of strong earthquakes (M > 7). The subject of the study is the waiting time for the next strong earthquake. The purpose of the study is to compare two distributions of waiting time, one of…
Advancing the capabilities of earthquake nowcasting, the real-time forecasting of seismic activities remains a crucial and enduring objective aimed at reducing casualties. This multifaceted challenge has recently gained attention within the…
We investigate how the constraints on cosmological and astrophysical parameters ($\Omega_{\rm m}$, $\sigma_{8}$, $A_{\rm SN1}$, $A_{\rm SN2}$) vary when exploiting information from multiple fields in cosmology. We make use of a…
Uncertainty quantification in Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based predictions of material properties is of immense importance for the success and reliability of AI applications in material science. While confidence intervals are commonly…
We examine the applicability of modern neural network architectures to the midterm prediction of earthquakes. Our data-based classification model aims to predict if an earthquake with the magnitude above a threshold takes place at a given…
We present a machine learning approach for the aftershock forecasting of Japanese earthquake catalogue from 2015 to 2019. Our method takes as sole input the ground surface deformation as measured by Global Positioning System (GPS) stations…
Ensuring the seismic safety of nuclear power plants (NPPs) is essential, especially for facilities that rely on base isolation to reduce earthquake impacts. For understanding the seismic response, accurate models are key to predict the…
The optimal scaling problem for the time t(LxL) between two successive events in a seismogenic cell of size L is considered. The quantity t(LxL) is defined for a random cell of a grid covering a seismic region G. We solve that problem in…
The upper bound earthquake magnitude (maximum possible magnitude) of a truncated Gutenberg-Richter relation is the right truncation point (right end-point) of a truncated exponential distribution and is important in the probabilistic…
In this paper we describe a general framework for incorporating tidal uncertainty into probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment and propose the Pattern Method and a simpler special case called the $\Delta t$ Method as effective approaches.…
Smartphone-based earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) are emerging as a complementary solution to classic EEWS based on expensive scientific-grade instruments. Smartphone-based systems, however, are characterized by a highly dynamic…
It is shown that considering a fixed increment of a given magnitude at a fault is equivalent to factoring the mechanical moment at the fault as done in structural engineering with the applied loads, by the most currently used structural…
This paper introduces a two-level robust approach to estimate the unknown states of a large-scale power system while the measurements and network parameters are subjected to uncertainties. The bounded data uncertainty (BDU) considered in…
Identifying systematic patterns in seismicity that precede large earthquakes remains a central challenge in statistical seismology. In this work, we present a methodological framework for detecting spatiotemporal anomalies in seismicity…
The distribution of inter-occurrence time between seismic events is a quantity of great interest in seismic risk assessment. We evaluate this distribution for different models of earthquakes occurrence and follow two distinct approaches:…
We examine the precursory behavior of geoelectric signals before large earthquakes by means of an algorithm including an alarm-based model and binary classification. This algorithm, introduced originally by Chen and Chen [Nat. Hazards., 84,…
We consider two issues related to the 2011 Tohoku mega-earthquake: (1) what is the repeat time for the largest earthquakes in this area, and (2) what are the possibilities of numerical short-term forecasts during the 2011 earthquake…
We propose deterministic timed automata (DTA) as a model-independent language for specifying performance and dependability measures over continuous-time stochastic processes. Technically, these measures are defined as limit frequencies of…
This paper discusses resonance effects to advance a classical earthquake model, namely the celebrated M8 global test algorithm. This algorithmgives high confidence levels for prediction of Time Intervals of Increased Probability (TIP) of an…