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Motivated by the goal of improving the efficiency of small sample design, we propose a novel Bayesian stochastic approximation method to estimate the root of a regression function. The method features adaptive local modelling and…
Gaussian process is a very promising novel technology that has been applied to both the regression problem and the classification problem. While for the regression problem it yields simple exact solutions, this is not the case for the…
In this paper, the valuation of European and path-dependent options in foreign exchange (FX) markets is considered when the currency exchange rate evolves according to the Heston model combined with the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross dynamics for the…
We examine the problem of estimating the trace of a matrix $A$ when given access to an oracle which computes $x^\dagger A x$ for an input vector $x$. We make use of the basis vectors from a set of mutually unbiased bases, widely studied in…
Interest is in evaluating, by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation, the expected value of a function with respect to a, possibly unnormalized, probability distribution. A general purpose variance reduction technique for the MCMC…
This paper investigates asymptotically optimal importance sampling (IS) schemes for pricing European call options under the Heston stochastic volatility model. We focus on two distinct rare-event regimes where standard Monte Carlo methods…
We study an unbiased estimator for the density of a sum of random variables that are simulated from a computer model. A numerical study on examples with copula dependence is conducted where the proposed estimator performs favourably in…
Simulating samples from arbitrary probability distributions is a major research program of statistical computing. Recent work has shown promise in an old idea, that sampling from a discrete distribution can be accomplished by perturbing and…
Constructing unbiased estimators from Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) outputs is a difficult problem that has recently received a lot of attention in the statistics and machine learning communities. However, the current unbiased MCMC…
In this note we study the numerical stability problem that may take place when calculating the cumulative distribution function of the {\it Hypoexponential} random variable. This computation is extensively used during the execution of Monte…
In this paper, we propose a novel and generic family of multiple importance sampling estimators. We first revisit the celebrated balance heuristic estimator, a widely used Monte Carlo technique for the approximation of intractable…
In this paper we propose an efficient stochastic optimization algorithm to search for Bayesian experimental designs such that the expected information gain is maximized. The gradient of the expected information gain with respect to…
Adaptive Monte Carlo methods are recent variance reduction techniques. In this work, we propose a mathematical setting which greatly relaxes the assumptions needed by for the adaptive importance sampling techniques presented by Vazquez-Abad…
Variational inference approximates the posterior distribution of a probabilistic model with a parameterized density by maximizing a lower bound for the model evidence. Modern solutions fit a flexible approximation with stochastic gradient…
We study the existence of algorithms generating almost surely nonnegative unbiased estimators. We show that given a nonconstant real-valued function $f$ and a sequence of unbiased estimators of $\lambda\in\mathbb{R}$, there is no algorithm…
In this paper, we aim to compute numerical approximation integral by using an adaptive Monte Carlo algorithm. We propose a stratified sampling algorithm based on an iterative method which splits the strata following some quantities called…
Control variates are a well-established tool to reduce the variance of Monte Carlo estimators. However, for large-scale problems including high-dimensional and large-sample settings, their advantages can be outweighed by a substantial…
Estimating predictive uncertainty is crucial for many computer vision tasks, from image classification to autonomous driving systems. Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is an sampling method for performing Bayesian inference. On the other hand,…
We describe general multilevel Monte Carlo methods that estimate the price of an Asian option monitored at $m$ fixed dates. Our approach yields unbiased estimators with standard deviation $O(\epsilon)$ in $O(m + (1/\epsilon)^{2})$ expected…
A key quantity of interest in Bayesian inference are expectations of functions with respect to a posterior distribution. Markov Chain Monte Carlo is a fundamental tool to consistently compute these expectations via averaging samples drawn…