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Cosmological models and their parameters are widely debated, especially about whether the current discrepancy between the values of the Hubble constant, $H_{0}$, obtained by type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), and the Planck data from the Cosmic…
Bayesian analysis has become an indispensable tool across many different cosmological fields including the study of gravitational waves, the Cosmic Microwave Background and the 21-cm signal from the Cosmic Dawn among other phenomena. The…
Low-redshift probes, such as Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) and Supernovae Ia luminosity distances, have been shown to be crucial for improving the bounds on the total neutrino mass from cosmological observations, due to their ability…
Making inferences about physical properties of the Universe requires knowledge of the data likelihood. A Gaussian distribution is commonly assumed for the uncertainties with a covariance matrix estimated from a set of simulations. The noise…
Measurement of Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) anisotropies has been playing a lead role in precision cosmology by providing some of the tightest constrains on cosmological models and parameters. However, precision can only be meaningful…
Composite likelihoods are increasingly used in applications where the full likelihood is analytically unknown or computationally prohibitive. Although the maximum composite likelihood estimator has frequentist properties akin to those of…
Standard approaches to Bayesian parameter inference in large scale structure assume a Gaussian functional form (chi-squared form) for the likelihood. This assumption, in detail, cannot be correct. Likelihood free inferences such as…
We propose a formalism for estimating the skewness and angular power spectrum of a general Cosmic Microwave Background data set. We use the Edgeworth Expansion to define a non-Gaussian likelihood function that takes into account the…
A natural way to quantify uncertainties in Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) is through Bayesian methods. That said, sampling from the joint posterior distribution of GMMs via standard Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) imposes several…
Explaining how overparametrized neural networks simultaneously achieve low risk and zero empirical risk on benchmark datasets is an open problem. PAC-Bayes bounds optimized using variational inference (VI) have been recently proposed as a…
The Lyman-$\alpha$ (Ly$\alpha$) three-dimensional correlation functions have been widely used to perform cosmological inference using the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) scale. While the traditional inference approach employs a data…
The PAC-Bayesian approach is a powerful set of techniques to derive non- asymptotic risk bounds for random estimators. The corresponding optimal distribution of estimators, usually called the Gibbs posterior, is unfortunately intractable.…
The Gaussian beam superposition method is an asymptotic method for computing high frequency wave fields in smoothly varying inhomogeneous media. In this paper we study the accuracy of the Gaussian beam superposition method and derive error…
The Gaussian theory of errors has been generalized to situations, where the Gaussian distribution and, hence, the Gaussian rules of error propagation are inadequate. The generalizations are based on Bayes' theorem and a suitable measure.…
We propose a method to improve the efficiency and accuracy of amortized Bayesian inference by leveraging universal symmetries in the joint probabilistic model of parameters and data. In a nutshell, we invert Bayes' theorem and estimate the…
The Frequentist, Assisted by Bayes (FAB) framework constructs confidence regions that leverage prior information about parameter values. FAB confidence regions (FAB-CRs) have smaller volume for values of the parameter that are likely under…
Recent results of N-body simulations have shown that current theoretical models are not able to correctly predict the amplitude of the scale-dependent halo bias induced by primordial non-Gaussianity, for models going beyond the simplest,…
The use of Gaussian processes (GPs) is supported by efficient sampling algorithms, a rich methodological literature, and strong theoretical grounding. However, due to their prohibitive computation and storage demands, the use of exact GPs…
Gaussian time-series models are often specified through their spectral density. Such models present several computational challenges, in particular because of the non-sparse nature of the covariance matrix. We derive a fast approximation of…
The prominent Bernstein -- von Mises (BvM) result claims that the posterior distribution after centering by the efficient estimator and standardizing by the square root of the total Fisher information is nearly standard normal. In…