Related papers: Persistent collective trend in stock markets
The value of stocks, indices and other assets, are examples of stochastic processes with unpredictable dynamics. In this paper, we discuss asymmetries in short term price movements that can not be associated with a long term positive trend.…
In financial time series there are periods in which the value increases or decreases monotonically. We call those periods elemental trends and study the probability distribution of their duration for the indices DJIA, NASDAQ and IPC. It is…
The presence of significant cross-correlations between the synchronous time evolution of a pair of equity returns is a well-known empirical fact. The Pearson correlation is commonly used to indicate the level of similarity in the price…
The aim of this study is to investigate quantitatively whether share prices deviated from company fundamentals in the stock market crash of 2008. For this purpose, we use a large database containing the balance sheets and share prices of…
We study the dynamic interactions and structural changes in global financial indices in the years 1998-2012. We apply a principal component analysis (PCA) to cross-correlation coefficients of the stock indices. We calculate the correlations…
The gain-loss asymmetry, observed in the inverse statistics of stock indices is present for logarithmic return levels that are over $2\%$, and it is the result of the non-Pearson type auto-correlations in the index. These non-Pearson type…
Financial empirical correlation matrices of all the companies which both, the Deutsche Aktienindex (DAX) and the Dow Jones comprised during the time period 1990-1999 are studied using a time window of a limited, either 30 or 60, number of…
We establish several new stylised facts concerning the intra-day seasonalities of stock dynamics. Beyond the well known U-shaped pattern of the volatility, we find that the average correlation between stocks increases throughout the day,…
We revisit the index leverage effect, that can be decomposed into a volatility effect and a correlation effect. We investigate the latter using a matrix regression analysis, that we call `Principal Regression Analysis' (PRA) and for which…
The correlation coefficient between stocks depends on price history and includes information on hierarchical structure in financial markets. It is useful for portfolio selection and estimation of risk. I introduce the Life Time of…
Stock networks, constructed from stock price time series, are a well-established tool for the characterization of complex behavior in stock markets. Following Mantegna's seminal paper, the linear Pearson's correlation coefficient between…
Classical technical analysis methods of stock evolution are recalled, i.e. the notion of moving averages and momentum indicators. The moving averages lead to define death and gold crosses, resistance and support lines. Momentum indicators…
It is hypothesized that price charts can be empirically decomposed into two components as random and non random. The non random component, which can be treated as approximately regular behavior of the prices (trend) in an epoch, is a…
We construct a general stochastic process and prove weak convergence results. It is scaled in space and through the parameters of its distribution. We show that our simplified scaling is equivalent to time scaling used frequently. The…
It is commonly believed that the correlations between stock returns increase in high volatility periods. We investigate how much of these correlations can be explained within a simple non-Gaussian one-factor description with time…
In a general way, stock and bond prices do not display any significant correlation. Yet, if we concentrate our attention on specific episodes marked by a crash followed by a rebound, then we observe that stock prices have a strong…
Financial markets across all asset classes are known to exhibit trends. These trends have been exploited by traders for decades. Here, we empirically measure when trends revert, based on 30 years of daily futures prices for equity indices,…
We test for the long-run relationship between stock prices, inflation and its uncertainty for different U.S. sector stock indexes, over the period 2002M7 to 2015M10. For this purpose we use a cointegration analysis with one structural break…
The measured correlations of financial time series in subsequent epochs change considerably as a function of time. When studying the whole correlation matrices, quasi-stationary patterns, referred to as market states, are seen by applying…
Pearson correlation and mutual information based complex networks of the day-to-day returns of US S&P500 stocks between 1985 and 2015 have been constructed in order to investigate the mutual dependencies of the stocks and their nature. We…