Related papers: Nested Sampling with Constrained Hamiltonian Monte…
In performing a Bayesian analysis, two difficult problems often emerge. First, in estimating the parameters of some model for the data, the resulting posterior distribution may be multi-modal or exhibit pronounced (curving) degeneracies.…
Nested Sampling is a method for computing the Bayesian evidence, also called the marginal likelihood, which is the integral of the likelihood with respect to the prior. More generally, it is a numerical probabilistic quadrature rule. The…
Quality by design in pharmaceutical manufacturing hinges on computational methods and tools that are capable of accurate quantitative prediction of the design space. This paper investigates Bayesian approaches to design space…
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo is a widely used algorithm for sampling from posterior distributions of complex Bayesian models. It can efficiently explore high-dimensional parameter spaces guided by simulated Hamiltonian flows. However, the…
Bayesian model selection provides a powerful framework for objectively comparing models directly from observed data, without reference to ground truth data. However, Bayesian model selection requires the computation of the marginal…
We propose nested sequential Monte Carlo (NSMC), a methodology to sample from sequences of probability distributions, even where the random variables are high-dimensional. NSMC generalises the SMC framework by requiring only approximate,…
Nested sampling is a simulation method for approximating marginal likelihoods proposed by Skilling (2006). We establish that nested sampling has an approximation error that vanishes at the standard Monte Carlo rate and that this error is…
Bayesian inference with nested sampling requires a likelihood-restricted prior sampling method, which draws samples from the prior distribution that exceed a likelihood threshold. For high-dimensional problems, Markov Chain Monte Carlo…
We introduce a general Monte Carlo method based on Nested Sampling (NS), for sampling complex probability distributions and estimating the normalising constant. The method uses one or more particles, which explore a mixture of nested…
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is an efficient Bayesian sampling method that can make distant proposals in the parameter space by simulating a Hamiltonian dynamical system. Despite its popularity in machine learning and data science, HMC is…
Bayesian inference involves two main computational challenges. First, in estimating the parameters of some model for the data, the posterior distribution may well be highly multi-modal: a regime in which the convergence to stationarity of…
We present a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from multivariate Gaussian distributions in which the target space is constrained by linear and quadratic inequalities or products thereof. The Hamiltonian equations of motion can be…
Nested sampling (NS) computes parameter posterior distributions and makes Bayesian model comparison computationally feasible. Its strengths are the unsupervised navigation of complex, potentially multi-modal posteriors until a well-defined…
Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods comprise one of the most successful approaches to approximate Bayesian filtering. However, SMC without good proposal distributions struggle in high dimensions. We propose nested sequential Monte Carlo…
The problem of sampling constrained continuous distributions has frequently appeared in many machine/statistical learning models. Many Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) sampling methods have been adapted to handle different types of…
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a Markov chain algorithm for sampling from a high-dimensional distribution with density $e^{-f(x)}$, given access to the gradient of $f$. A particular case of interest is that of a $d$-dimensional Gaussian…
Nested sampling is a promising tool for Bayesian statistical analysis because it simultaneously performs parameter estimation and facilitates model comparison. MultiNest is one of the most popular nested sampling implementations, and has…
We introduce a new class of sequential Monte Carlo methods which reformulates the essence of the nested sampling method of Skilling (2006) in terms of sequential Monte Carlo techniques. Two new algorithms are proposed, nested sampling via…
We propose a Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from high dimensional probability distributions that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo and importance sampling. We provide a careful theoretical analysis, including guarantees on robustness to…
In this paper we address the widely-experienced difficulty in tuning Hamiltonian-based Monte Carlo samplers. We develop an algorithm that allows for the adaptation of Hamiltonian and Riemann manifold Hamiltonian Monte Carlo samplers using…