Related papers: Approximate Methods for State-Space Models
State-space models are successfully used in many areas of science, engineering and economics to model time series and dynamical systems. We present a fully Bayesian approach to inference \emph{and learning} (i.e. state estimation and system…
State-space models are pivotal for dynamic system analysis but often struggle with outlier data that deviates from Gaussian distributions, frequently exhibiting skewness and heavy tails. This paper introduces a robust extension utilizing…
Generative Bayesian Filtering (GBF) provides a powerful and flexible framework for performing posterior inference in complex nonlinear and non-Gaussian state-space models. Our approach extends Generative Bayesian Computation (GBC) to…
We propose a novel method for maximum likelihood-based parameter inference in nonlinear and/or non-Gaussian state space models. The method is an iterative procedure with three steps. At each iteration a particle filter is used to estimate…
We perform approximate inference in state-space models with nonlinear state transitions. Without parameterizing a generative model, we apply Bayesian update formulas using a local linearity approximation parameterized by neural networks.…
State-space models (SSMs) are a powerful statistical tool for modelling time-varying systems via a latent state. In these models, the latent state is never directly observed. Instead, a sequence of observations related to the state is…
In this letter, a new filtering technique to solve a nonlinear state estimation problem has been developed. It is well known that for a nonlinear system, the prior and posterior probability density functions (pdf) are non-Gaussian in…
Circular time series has received relatively little attention in statistics and modeling complex circular time series using the state space approach is non-existent in the literature. In this article we introduce a flexible Bayesian…
In this paper, we present an optimal filter for linear time-varying continuous-time stochastic systems that simultaneously estimates the states and unknown inputs in an unbiased minimum-variance sense. We first show that the unknown inputs…
In this paper, we study the problem of estimating the state of a dynamic state-space system where the output is subject to quantization. We compare some classical approaches and a new development in the literature to obtain the filtering…
We introduce Variational State-Space Filters (VSSF), a new method for unsupervised learning, identification, and filtering of latent Markov state space models from raw pixels. We present a theoretically sound framework for latent state…
Latent Gaussian process (GP) models are flexible probabilistic non-parametric function models. Vecchia approximations are accurate approximations for GPs to overcome computational bottlenecks for large data, and the Laplace approximation is…
The ability to generate samples of the random effects from their conditional distributions is fundamental for inference in mixed effects models. Random walk Metropolis is widely used to perform such sampling, but this method is known to…
Gaussian-process state-space models (GP-SSMs) provide a flexible nonparametric alternative for modeling time-series dynamics that are nonlinear or difficult to specify parametrically. While the Kalman filter is effective for linear-Gaussian…
In this work, we present methods for state estimation in continuous-discrete nonlinear systems involving stochastic differential equations. We present the extended Kalman filter, the unscented Kalman filter, the ensemble Kalman filter, and…
A new approach to inference in state space models is proposed, based on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). ABC avoids evaluation of the likelihood function by matching observed summary statistics with statistics computed from data…
We examine an analytic variational inference scheme for the Gaussian Process State Space Model (GPSSM) - a probabilistic model for system identification and time-series modelling. Our approach performs variational inference over both the…
An assumed density approximate likelihood is derived for a class of partially observed stochastic compartmental models which permit observational over-dispersion. This is achieved by treating time-varying reporting probabilities as latent…
Latent force models (LFMs) are hybrid models combining mechanistic principles with non-parametric components. In this article, we shall show how LFMs can be equivalently formulated and solved using the state variable approach. We shall also…
We propose a new extension of Kalman filtering for continuous-discrete systems with nonlinear state-space models that we name as the level set Kalman filter (LSKF). The LSKF assumes the probability distribution can be approximated as a…