Related papers: Chain ladder method: Bayesian bootstrap versus cla…
This chapter will appear in the forthcoming Handbook of Approximate Bayesian Computation (2018). The conceptual and methodological framework that underpins approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is targetted primarily towards problems in…
Bayesian nonparametric mixture models offer a rich framework for model based clustering. We consider the situation where the kernel of the mixture is available only up to an intractable normalizing constant. In this case, most of the…
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a popular computational method for likelihood-free Bayesian inference. The term "likelihood-free" refers to problems where the likelihood is intractable to compute or estimate directly, but where it…
Performing exact posterior inference in complex generative models is often difficult or impossible due to an expensive to evaluate or intractable likelihood function. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is an inference framework that…
Approximate Bayesian computation methods can be used to evaluate posterior distributions without having to calculate likelihoods. In this paper we discuss and apply an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) method based on sequential Monte…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a class of Bayesian inference algorithms that targets for problems with intractable or {unavailable} likelihood function. It uses synthetic data drawn from the simulation model to approximate the…
The likelihood-free sequential Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) algorithms, are increasingly popular inference tools for complex biological models. Such algorithms proceed by constructing a succession of probability distributions over…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a powerful and elegant framework for performing inference in simulation-based models. However, due to the difficulty in scaling likelihood estimates, ABC remains useful for relatively…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is now an established technique for statistical inference used in cases where the likelihood function is computationally expensive or not available. It relies on the use of a~model that is specified in…
Insurers are faced with the challenge of estimating the future reserves needed to handle historic and outstanding claims that are not fully settled. A well-known and widely used technique is the chain-ladder method, which is a deterministic…
Also known as likelihood-free methods, approximate Bayesian computational (ABC) methods have appeared in the past ten years as the most satisfactory approach to untractable likelihood problems, first in genetics then in a broader spectrum…
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a powerful method for carrying out Bayesian inference when the likelihood is computationally intractable. However, a drawback of ABC is that it is an approximate method that induces a systematic…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is one of the most popular "likelihood-free" methods. These methods have been applied in a wide range of fields by providing solutions to intractable likelihood problems in which exact Bayesian…
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) enables statistical inference in simulator-based models whose likelihoods are difficult to calculate but easy to simulate from. ABC constructs a kernel-type approximation to the posterior distribution…
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a popular inference method when likelihoods are hard to come by. Practical bottlenecks of ABC applications include selecting statistics that summarize the data without losing too much information or…
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods have gained in their popularity over the last decade because they expand the horizon of Bayesian parameter inference methods to the range of models for which only forward simulation is…
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) are likelihood-free Monte Carlo methods. ABC methods use a comparison between simulated data, using different parameters drew from a prior distribution, and observed data. This comparison process is…
We revisit the famous Mack's model which gives an estimate for the conditional mean squared error of prediction of the chain-ladder claims reserves. We introduce a stochastic differential equation driven by a Brownian motion to model the…
Mack's distribution-free chain ladder reserving model belongs to the most popular approaches in non-life insurance mathematics. Proposed to determine the first two moments of the reserve, it does not allow to identify the whole distribution…
Despite their widespread applications, Large Language Models (LLMs) often struggle to express uncertainty, posing a challenge for reliable deployment in high stakes and safety critical domains like clinical diagnostics. Existing standard…